New Mexico Weather: 6/1/17

Yesterday was hot, humid and still.  The skies were cloudy almost the entire day, and a little drizzle fell by the evening.

This morning has been mild, still and sunny.  There were only a few high clouds over the Sandias this morning, arranged in a Kelvin-Helmholtz wave pattern.

National Weather Service (NWS) in Albuquerque forecasts (for Socorro) a partly sunny day, with a 30% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms and a high temperature of 84 F. The winds will be from the south at 5-15 mph.  This evening will be mostly cloudy, with a 30% chance of showers and thunderstorms and a  low temperature of 58 F. Winds will be from the south at 10-15 mph, decreasing to 5-10 mph after midnight.

The NWS in Albuquerque forecasts (for Magdalena) a mostly sunny day, with a 50% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms and a high temperature of 75 F. The winds will be from the south at 5-15 mph.  This evening will be mostly cloudy, with a 40% chance of showers and thunderstorms and a  low temperature of 52 F. Winds will be from the southwest at 10-15 mph.

The NWS in Albuquerque forecasts (for Rio Rancho) a partly sunny day, with a 20% chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms and a high temperature of 84 F. The winds will be from the northeast at 5-10 mph, becoming southwest in the afternoon.  This evening will be mostly cloudy, with a 20% chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms and a low temperature of 57 F. Winds will be from the southwest at 5-10 mph, becoming northeast after midnight.

The NWS has issued a Hazardous Weather Outlook concerning afternoon thunderstorms for most of the state.  Small hail and gusty winds are possible with these storms.

The visible satellite imagery is unavailable at this time.

The infrared satellite imagery shows only a few light clouds over the state.  These clouds are thin, with low, warm tops.

The water vapor imagery shows that we are under some deeper moisture, and that there are several eddies all around the state today.

The 12Z sounding from Albuquerque shows a relatively dry atmosphere over the state this morning.  There was 0.74 inches of precipitable water present in the column this morning.  There was 37 J/kg of  Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) and -266 J/kg of Convective Inhibition (CINH) present.  There was a tiny thermal inversion, and the 0-3 km average lapse rate was 5.8 C/km.

The hodograph shows that there was 5 kts of low-level shear (mostly due to directional changes) and 9 kts of deep-layer shear (mostly due to speed changes).

The surface observations (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) show warm temperatures, and moderate humidity (based on the surface dewpoint depressions).  The skies are mostly clear, though some areas have clouds, and the winds calm, with quite a few areas of no wind at all.  There are no major frontal boundaries clearly defined over the state this morning.

The surface pressure chart shows that there are no strong pressure systems or gradients over the state today.  The RAP shows that none are expected to develop over the next six hours.

Synoptically speaking, the 300 mb NAM chart (from Unisys) shows very little flow aloft as we are centered in a broad ridge.

The 500 mb NAM chart shows that there is no strong vorticity advection over the state today.  This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

The 700 mb NAM chart shows several pockets of rapidly-rising air over the state this afternoon, particularly over the western half of the state.

The 850 mb NAM chart shows no strong thermal advection over the state today.  This image has been excluded from today’s post.

The Precipitation chart shows precipitation is possible over most of the state by 00Z.

Today will cloud up and could become rainy with a few thunderstorms.  Winds will remain light, outside of storm gusts. It’s almost a monsoonal pattern.

Thank you for reading my forecast.

The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The forecasted upper air soundings are from TwisterData.com.
The surface observation and upper level charts are from Unisys Weather.
The satellite data is from College of DuPage – SATRAD

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About highplainschasing

This blog is about my tales in storm chasing. My name is Seth Price and I am an instrumentation instructor at New Mexico Tech. My amateur radio call sign is N3MRA.
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