Yesterday was hot, breezy and mostly sunny. There were quite a few cumulus clouds by the afternoon, and some virga by the late evening.
This morning has been mild, still and sunny. There is the cloudless view from my backyard:
The National Weather Service (NWS) in Albuquerque forecasts (for Socorro) a sunny day, with a high temperature of 87 F. The winds will be from the south at 15-20 mph and gusting as high as 30 mph by the afternoon. This evening will be partly cloudy, with a low temperature of 55 F. Winds will be from the south at 15-20 mph, gusting to 30 mph, but becoming north at 5-10 mph after midnight.
The NWS in Albuquerque forecasts (for Magdalena) a sunny day, with a high temperature of 80 F. The winds will be from the west at 10-15 mph, becoming south at 15-20 mph by the afternoon. This evening will be partly cloudy, with a low temperature of 46 F. Winds will be from the southwest at 15-20 mph, decreasing to 10-15 mph after midnight.
The NWS in Albuquerque forecasts (for Rio Rancho) a sunny day, with a high temperature of 87 F. The winds will be from the northwest at 5-10 mph,becoming south at 15-20 mph by the afternoon. This evening will be mostly clear, with a low temperature of 54 F. Winds will be from the south at 15-20 mph, becoming a light west breeze after midnight.
The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has issued an Elevated Risk for wildfires for most of the state this morning.
The visible satellite imagery is unavailable at this time.
The infrared satellite imagery shows no clouds over the state today. This image has been excluded form today’s post.
The water vapor imagery shows that there is still some available moisture, though relatively speaking, we are in a dry airmass ahead of the next trough.
The 12Z sounding from Albuquerque shows a relatively dry atmosphere over the state this morning. There was 0.26 inches of precipitable water present in the column this morning. There was no Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) and no Convective Inhibition (CINH) present. There was a tiny thermal inversion, and the 0-3 km average lapse rate was 6.3 C/km.
The hodograph shows that there was 11 kts of low-level shear (mostly due to directional changes) and 37 kts of deep-layer shear (mostly due to speed changes).
The surface observations (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) show warm temperatures, and low humidity (based on the surface dewpoint depressions). The skies are clear and the winds calm, with quite a few areas of no wind at all. There are no major frontal boundaries clearly defined over the state this morning.
The surface pressure chart shows that low pressure is building over the Four Corners area ahead of the next trough. There are no strong pressure gradients over the state this morning. The RAP shows that the low pressure system and lack of strong pressure gradients will persist for at least the next six hours.
The Mid-Altitude Haines Index shows that the fire threat is slowly rebuilding across the state as the ground begins to dry out.
Synoptically speaking, the 300 mb NAM chart (from Unisys) shows an approaching positively tilted trough, and southwesterly flow aloft.
The 500 mb NAM chart shows that there is no strong vorticity advection over the state today. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.
The 700 mb NAM chart shows several pockets of rapidly-rising air over the state this afternoon.
The 850 mb NAM chart shows no strong thermal advection over the state today. This image has been excluded from today’s post.
The Precipitation chart shows precipitation is unlikely at this time. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.
Today might be breezy in the afternoon. I have lots of outdoor activities to finish up before chasing storms.
Speaking of which, I will start chasing storms tomorrow. I pick up a fellow chaser at the airport tomorrow afternoon, so, for the next two weeks, this blog will be focused on my chasing forecasts instead of New Mexico weather. Stay tuned though, as I will post photos and perhaps information about a livestream here.
Thank you for reading my forecast.
The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The forecasted upper air soundings are from TwisterData.com.
The surface observation and upper level charts are from Unisys Weather.
The satellite data is from College of DuPage – SATRAD