Yesterday was warm and sunny all day. The skies clouded up a bit over Rio Rancho in the late evening.
This morning has been mild, still and mostly sunny. There were a few H1 Cumulus clouds visible from my backyard:
The National Weather Service (NWS) in Albuquerque forecasts (for Socorro) a sunny day, with a high temperature of 79 F. The winds will be from the south at 10-15 mph, increasing to 15-20 mph and gusting as high as 30 mph by the afternoon. This evening will be mostly clear, with a low temperature of 54 F. Winds will be from the south at 15-20 mph, gusting to 30 mph, but becoming light and variable after midnight.
The NWS in Albuquerque forecasts (for Magdalena) a sunny day, with a high temperature of 80 F. The winds will be from the south at 15-20 mph and gusting as high as 30 mph by the afternoon. This evening will be mostly clear, with a low temperature of 49 F. Winds will be from the west at 10-20 mph.
The NWS in Albuquerque forecasts (for Rio Rancho) a mostly sunny day, with a high temperature of 84 F. The winds will be from the south at 5-10 mph, increasing to 15-20 mph by the afternoon. This evening will be mostly clear, with a low temperature of 54 F. Winds will be from the south at 15-20 mph, becoming northwest at 5-10 mph after midnight.
The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has issued an Elevated Risk for wildfires in a stripe through the western part of the state.
The visible satellite imagery is unavailable at this time.
The infrared satellite imagery shows no clouds over the state today. This image has been excluded form today’s post.
The water vapor imagery shows that there is still a light plume of moisture running through the central and northern parts of the state this morning, but that there is less moisture today than there has been in the past few days.
The 12Z sounding from Albuquerque shows a relatively dry atmosphere, with a nearly saturated layer at 550 mb . There was 0.38 inches of precipitable water present in the column this morning. There was no Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) and no Convective Inhibition (CINH) present. There was a tiny thermal inversion, and the 0-3 km average lapse rate was 6.6 C/km.
The hodograph shows that there was 16 kts of low-level shear (mostly due to directional changes) and 26 kts of deep-layer shear (mostly due to speed changes).
The surface observations (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) show warm temperatures, and moderately high humidity (based on the surface dewpoint depressions). The skies are clear and the winds calm, with quite a few areas of no wind at all. There are no major frontal boundaries clearly defined over the state this morning.
The surface pressure chart shows that low pressure is building over the Four Corners area ahead of the next trough. There are no strong pressure gradients over the state this morning. The RAP shows that the low pressure system and lack of strong pressure gradients will persist for at least the next six hours.
Synoptically speaking, the 300 mb NAM chart (from Unisys) shows zonal flow becoming southwesterly as the next trough approaches from the west.
The 500 mb NAM chart shows that there is no strong vorticity advection over the state today. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.
The 700 mb NAM chart shows several pockets of rapidly-rising air over the state this afternoon.
The 850 mb NAM chart shows no strong thermal advection over the state today. This image has been excluded from today’s post.
The Precipitation chart shows precipitation is unlikely at this time. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.
Today might be breezy in the afternoon. I have plans to attend an outdoor graduation, so hopefully, it won’t be too breezy.
Thank you for reading my forecast.
The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The forecasted upper air soundings are from TwisterData.com.
The surface observation and upper level charts are from Unisys Weather.
The satellite data is from College of DuPage – SATRAD