Yesterday remained chilly, cloudy and rainy. There was a few severe storms, and one tornado near Raton, but mostly rain through the Rio Grande River Valley. The Storm Prediction Center Storm Reports Graphic is shown below:
This morning has been cool, still and mostly cloudy. Here is a photo from downtown Albuquerque along my commute this morning:
The National Weather Service (NWS) in Albuquerque forecasts (for Socorro) a mostly sunny day, with a high temperature of 76 F. The winds will be from the northwest at 10-15 mph, becoming north in the afternoon. This evening will be mostly clear, with a low temperature of 48 F. Winds will be from the northeast at 5-10 mph, becoming east after midnight.
The NWS in Albuquerque forecasts (for Magdalena) a mostly sunny day, with a high temperature of 69 F. The winds will be from the west at 10-15 mph, becoming northeast in the afternoon. This evening will be mostly clear, with a low temperature of 41 F. Winds will be from the northeast at 5 mph, becoming southwest after midnight.
The NWS in Albuquerque forecasts (for Rio Rancho) a a mostly sunny day, with a high temperature of 72 F. The winds will be from the north at 5 mph. This evening will be partly cloudy, with a low temperature of 48 F. Winds will be from the north at 5-10 mph, becoming east after midnight.
The NWS has issued a Hazardous Weather Outlook for their entire coverage area concerning the strong thunderstorms to severe thunderstorms throughout the area.
The visible satellite imagery is unavailable at this time.
The infrared satellite imagery shows a few thicker clouds on the edges of the state this morning.
The water vapor imagery shows that the mid-latitude cyclone is continuing east. We still have humid air over New Mexico, but it will begin to clear out today.
The 12Z sounding from Albuquerque shows a humid atmosphere, with a saturated layer at around 700 mb. There was 0.58 inches of precipitable water present in the column this morning. There was 1 J/kg of Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) and -18 J/kg of Convective Inhibition (CINH) present. There was no thermal inversion, and the 0-3 km average lapse rate was 5.8 C/km.
The hodograph shows that there was 17 kts of low-level shear (mostly due to directional changes) and 28 kts of deep-layer shear (due to a mix of speed and directional changes).
The surface observations (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) show warm temperatures, and high humidity (based on the surface dewpoint depressions). The skies are clear in south, but cloudy in the north, and the winds are light and variable across the entire state.
The surface pressure chart shows that high pressure is building in the Four Corners area, but there are no strong pressure gradients over the state this morning. The RAP shows that no strong pressure gradients are expected over the next six hours, but the high pressure will remain.
Synoptically speaking, the 300 mb NAM chart (from Unisys) shows that there will be only light, northerly flow aloft today. We are exiting the trough and entering a ridge.
The 500 mb NAM chart shows that there is no strong vorticity advection over the state today. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.
The 700 mb NAM chart is unavailable at this time.
The 850 mb NAM chart shows ta backdoor cold front entering the state through the northeastern corner. Notice how there is strong Cold Air Advection (CAA) in this region.
The Precipitation chart shows precipitation is unlikely at this time. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.
Today, we will begin to dry out in New Mexico. Enjoy the good weather!
Thank you for reading my forecast.
The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The forecasted upper air soundings are from TwisterData.com.
The surface observation and upper level charts are from Unisys Weather.
The satellite data is from College of DuPage – SATRAD