Yesterday turned chilly as the cold front passed through. There were some afternoon showers and thunderstorms in the Rio Grande River Valley, but none where I was at any given time. However, there were some severe storms to our east, including several tornadoes, as shown in the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) Storm Report Graphic shown below:
In the early morning hours, there was a strong storm at my house in Rio Rancho. Very little lightning, but it rained hard; a gully-washer, as it would have been called in the south. Here is a radar image of this cell:
This morning has been cool, still and mostly cloudy. I took a photo of the sunrise, with the Rio Rancho storm, as it moved over the mountains.
The National Weather Service (NWS) in Albuquerque forecasts (for Socorro) a mostly cloudy day, with a 50% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms, and a high temperature of 63 F. The winds will be from the southwest at 10-15 mph. This evening will mostly cloudy, with a 30% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms, and a low temperature of 47 F. Winds will be from the west at 10-15 mph.
The NWS in Albuquerque forecasts (for Magdalena) a mostly cloudy day, with a 60% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms, and a high temperature of 56 F. The winds will be from the southwest at 10-15 mph. This evening will mostly cloudy, with a 50% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms (decreasing to 20% after midnight), and a low temperature of 41 F. Winds will be from the west at 10-15 mph.
The NWS in Albuquerque forecasts (for Rio Rancho) a partly sunny day, with a 40% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms, and a high temperature of 63 F. The winds will be from the southwest at 5-15 mph. This evening will mostly cloudy, with a 40% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms, and a low temperature of 45 F. Winds will be from the west at 10-15 mph.
The NWS has issued a Hazardous Weather Outlook for their entire coverage area concerning the strong thunderstorms to severe thunderstorms throughout the area.
The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed the very northeastern corner of the state under a Slight Risk for severe weather.
Primary threats will be gusty winds and large hail, though there is a large 2% Tornado Threat Ring that runs through this area.
The visible satellite imagery is unavailable at this time.
The infrared satellite imagery shows a few thicker clouds on the edges of the state this morning.
The water vapor imagery shows deep moisture over the state today as the mid-latitude cyclone enters the southwestern corner of the state. Notice the moisture swirling around the center of low pressure. The low has not advanced very far, as compared to yesterday.
The 12Z sounding from Albuquerque shows a humid atmosphere, all the way up to 300 mb. There was 0.59 inches of precipitable water present in the column this morning. There was no Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) and -25 J/kg of Convective Inhibition (CINH) present. There was no thermal inversion, and the 0-3 km average lapse rate was 7.3 C/km.
The hodograph shows that there was 10 kts of low-level shear (mostly due to directional changes) and 63 kts of deep-layer shear (mostly due to speed changes).
The surface observations (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) show warm temperatures, and moderately high humidity (based on the surface dewpoint depressions). The skies are clear in south, but cloudy in the north, and the winds are light and variable across the entire state.
The surface pressure chart shows that most of the state is under lower pressure this morning, though the pressure gradient is not very strong. The RAP shows that the low pressure will remain throughout the next six hours, though the gradient may weaken.
The CAPE charts show a ring of 2000 J/kg CAPE building near the eastern edge of the state. The CINH will erode away as well, over the next six hours, according to the RAP. I was unable to capture an image of this, so you will have to take my word for it.
Synoptically speaking, the 300 mb NAM chart (from Unisys) shows that there will be only light flow aloft today. The upper-level low will drift over the state today.
The 500 mb NAM chart shows that there is plenty of vorticity circling the upper-level low.
The 700 mb NAM chart is unavailable at this time.
The 850 mb NAM chart shows the effects of yesterday’s cold front. Notice how much colder the temperatures are over New Mexico than the adjacent states.
The Precipitation chart shows some precipitation is likely over much of the state today, including heavy rain just east of the central mountain chain.
This will be an active storm day, but for farther east, mostly outside of New Mexico. Oh, we’ll get some rain and storms in NM, but the bulk of severe weather today will be in the eastern Texas Panhandle and western Oklahoma.
In a few days, I’ll be on the road chasing these sorts of set-ups.
Thank you for reading my forecast.
The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The forecasted upper air soundings are from TwisterData.com.
The surface observation and upper level charts are from Unisys Weather.
The satellite data is from College of DuPage – SATRAD