Yesterday was warm, sunny and pleasant. The winds picked up a bit in the afternoon, but then died down after sunset. It was a really nice day, and I was glad that I did not bring my jacket to lug around.
This morning has been warm, still and mostly sunny. There are clear skies over the New Mexico Tech campus this morning:
The National Weather Service (NWS) in Albuquerque forecasts (for Socorro) a mostly sunny day, with a 20% chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms, and a high temperature of 72 F. The winds will be from the south at 10-15 mph, increasing to 15-20 mph in the afternoon. This evening will partly cloudy, with a 20% chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms, and a low temperature of 43 F. Winds will be from the southwest at 15-20 mph, decreasing to 5-10 mph after midnight.
The NWS in Albuquerque forecasts (for Magdalena) a mostly sunny day, with a 20% chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms, and a high temperature of 64 F. The winds will be from the south at 10-15 mph, increasing to 20-25 mph in the afternoon. This evening will partly cloudy, with a 20% chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms, and a low temperature of 37 F. Winds will be from the south at 15-20 mph, becoming west at 5-10 mph after midnight.
The NWS in Albuquerque forecasts (for Rio Rancho) a partly sunny day, with a 40% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms, and a high temperature of 71 F. The winds will be from the east at 10-15 mph, becoming south in the afternoon. This evening will partly cloudy, with a 30% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms, and a low temperature of 44 F. Winds will be from the south at 10-15 mph, becoming west at 5-10 mph after midnight.
The NWS has issued a Hazardous Weather Outlook for their entire coverage area concerning the strong thunderstorms to severe thunderstorms throughout the area.
The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed the southeastern part of the state under an Elevated Fire Risk.
The SPC has also placed the northeastern part of the state under a Slight Risk for severe weather.
Primary threats will be gusty winds and large hail, though there is a large 5% Tornado Threat Ring that runs through the eastern edge of the state.
The visible satellite imagery is unavailable at this time.
The infrared satellite imagery shows a few thicker clouds on the edges of the state this morning.
The water vapor imagery shows deep moisture over the state today as the mid-latitude cyclone enters the southwestern corner of the state. Notice the moisture swirling around the center of low pressure.
The 12Z sounding from Albuquerque shows decent conditions for severe storms. There was 0.69 inches of precipitable water present in the column this morning. There was already 977 J/kg of Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) and -128 J/kg of Convective Inhibition (CINH) present. There was no thermal inversion, and the 0-3 km average lapse rate was 7.4 C/km. There was a Supercell Parameter of 2.7, and the LCL was 1012 m.
The hodograph shows that there was 29 kts of low-level shear (mostly due to directional changes) and 50 kts of deep-layer shear (mostly due to speed changes).
The surface observations (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) show warm temperatures, and moderately high humidity (based on the surface dewpoint depressions). The skies are clear in south, but cloudy in the north, and the winds are light and variable across the entire state. There is a variable surface moisture, with Socorro and Sierra counties in a strange low humidity area, versus all surrounding counties.
The surface pressure chart shows that most of the state is under lower pressure this morning, though the pressure gradient is not very strong. The RAP shows that the low pressure will remain throughout the next six hours, but the pressure gradient will only strengthen slightly.
The Mid-Elevation Haines chart shows that the fire weather threat has decreased since yesterday, but remains high in the southwest. Each day, it has been getting better, however.
The CAPE chart shows that 2500 J/kg of CAPE is possible over the eastern part of the state, in the next six hours, according to the RAP. Any CINH will have eroded away by then, so storms will begin to fire sometime
The Supercell Parameter is currently 2 in many areas, but is expected to climb to over 4 in the southeastern corner of the state in the next six hours, according to the RAP.
Synoptically speaking, the 300 mb NAM chart (from Unisys) shows that there will be southwesterly flow as the next trough passes over the state. There is a jetstreak in the southern part of the state.
The 500 mb NAM chart shows that much of the state will see Positive Vorticity Advection (PVA) ahead of the closed, upper-level low.
The 700 mb NAM chart shows quite a few pockets of rapidly-rising air over the western 2/3 of the state this morning.
The 850 mb NAM chart shows some Cold Air Advection (CAA) moving in from the east this afternoon. There is some more CAA approaching from the west ahead of the trough. Both of these pockets of CAA will serve as the cold front that will initiate some thunderstorms.
The Precipitation chart shows some precipitation is likely over much of the state today, including heavy rain just east of the central mountain chain.
This will be an active storm day. I am already preparing to leave next week for storms, but I have debated chasing today. Conditions will be great, particularly in the southeastern corner of the state, and along the Texas line. I would target somewhere between Hobbs and Carlsbad, if I were chasing today.
Thank you for reading my forecast.
The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The forecasted upper air soundings are from TwisterData.com.
The surface observation and upper level charts are from Unisys Weather.
The satellite data is from College of DuPage – SATRAD