Yesterday was warm, sunny and pleasant. Conditions became breezy in the afternoon, but it did not prevent me from going on an 18-mile bike ride.
This morning has been warm, still and mostly sunny. There are a few high cirrocumulus clouds and some haze in the air this morning in Albuquerque:
The National Weather Service (NWS) in Albuquerque forecasts (for Socorro) a mostly sunny day, with a high temperature of 78 F. The winds will be from the south at 5-10 mph, increasing to 15-20 mph in the afternoon. This evening will mostly cloudy, with a 40% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms, and a low temperature of 51 F. Winds will be from the south at 15-20 mph, decreasing to 5-10 mph after midnight.
The NWS in Albuquerque forecasts (for Magdalena) a mostly sunny day, with a high temperature of 71 F. The winds will be from the south at 10-15 mph, increasing to 15-20 mph in the afternoon. This evening will mostly cloudy, with a 40% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms, and a low temperature of 45 F. Winds will be from the south at 10-15 mph, decreasing to 5-10 mph after midnight.
The NWS in Albuquerque forecasts (for Rio Rancho) a mostly sunny day, with a high temperature of 80 F. The winds will be from the northeast at 5-10 mph, becoming south at 15-20 mph, gusting to 30 mph in the afternoon. This evening will mostly cloudy, with a 50% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms, and a low temperature of 51 F. Winds will be from the south at 15-20 mph, decreasing to 5-10 mph after midnight.
The NWS has issued a Hazardous Weather Outlook for their entire coverage area concerning the strong thunderstorms and fire weather this afternoon.
The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed the central part of the state under an Elevated Fire Risk.
The SPC has also placed the northeastern part of the state under a Slight Risk for severe weather. Primary threats will be gusty winds and large hail, with less than a 2% chance of tornadoes.
The visible satellite imagery is unavailable at this time.
The infrared satellite imagery shows a few thicker clouds over the western half of the state this morning.
The water vapor imagery shows deep moisture over the state today. Notice the moisture swirling into the approaching upper-level low pressure system off the coast of California.
The 12Z sounding from Albuquerque shows a dry boundary layer with a moisture peak at around 550 mb. There was 0.38 inches of precipitable water present in the column this morning. There was no Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) and no Convective Inhibition (CINH) present. There was no thermal inversion, and the 0-3 km average lapse rate was 6.2 C/km.
The hodograph shows that there was 16 kts of low-level shear (mostly due to directional changes) and 39 kts of deep-layer shear (due to a mix of speed and directional changes).
The surface observations (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) show warm temperatures, and moderate humidity (based on the surface dewpoint depressions). The skies are clear, and the winds are light and variable across the entire state. There is a dryline running north to south through the eastern third of the state.
The surface pressure chart shows that most of the state is under lower pressure this morning, though the pressure gradient is not very strong. The RAP shows that a thermal low will intensify over the Four Corners area in the next six hours, and the pressure gradients will steepen a bit in the western part of the state.
The Mid-Elevation Haines chart shows that the fire weather threat has decreased since yesterday, but remains high in the west.
The CAPE chart shows that 2000 J/kg of CAPE is possible over the eastern part of the state. I cannot get a screen capture of the chart, however, so it has been excluded from today’s post.
Synoptically speaking, the 300 mb NAM chart (from Unisys) shows that there will be southwesterly flow as the next trough approaches. Currently, this trough has a jetstreak that ejects into New Mexico.
The 500 mb NAM chart shows a few pockets of positive vorticity that may drum up a little convection by the afternoon. The largest Positive Vorticity Advection (PVA) is still over Arizona near the closed, upper-level low pressure system.
The 700 mb NAM chart is unavailable at this time.
The 850 mb NAM chart shows some Cold Air Advection (CAA) moving in from the east this afternoon. This CAA will serve as the cold front that will initiate some thunderstorms.
The Precipitation chart shows some precipitation is possible near the Slight Risk area. Rain and hail will be possible with these thunderstorms.
There will be a chance of storms this evening, and I welcome the rain. Perhaps some precipitation will reduce our fire threat this week.
Thank you for reading my forecast.
The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The forecasted upper air soundings are from TwisterData.com.
The surface observation and upper level charts are from Unisys Weather.
The satellite data is from College of DuPage – SATRAD