Yesterday was hot, partly sunny and pleasant. Conditions became breezy and cloudy in the afternoon, but no precipitation fell at my house.
This morning has been warm, still and mostly sunny. Here is a photo of the skies over my back yard:
The National Weather Service (NWS) in Albuquerque forecasts (for Socorro) a sunny day, with a high temperature of 82 F. The winds will be from the south at 10-15 mph, increasing to 25-30 mph in the afternoon, gusting to 40 mph. This evening will partly cloudy, with a low temperature of 48 F. Winds will be from the south at 15-25 mph, gusting to 35 mph, and then decreasing to 5-10 mph after midnight.
The NWS in Albuquerque forecasts (for Magdalena) a sunny day, with a high temperature of 72 F. The winds will be from the south at 15-25 mph, gusting to 35 mph. This evening will partly cloudy, with a low temperature of 43 F. Winds will be from the southwest at 15-25 mph, gusting to 35 mph, and then decreasing to 5-15 mph after midnight.
The NWS in Albuquerque forecasts (for Rio Rancho) a sunny day, with a high temperature of 80 F. The winds will be from the south at 15-25 mph, gusting to 35 mph. This evening will partly cloudy, with a low temperature of 50 F. Winds will be from the south at 15-25 mph, gusting to 35 mph, and then decreasing to 5-15 mph after midnight.
The NWS has issued a Hazardous Weather Outlook for their entire coverage area concerning dry thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. They have also issued a Red Flag Warning for a stripe of counties surrounding the I-40 corridor, as shown in the Watches and Warnings graphic below:
The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed the entire state under an Elevated Fire Risk, and the central part of the state is under a Critical Fire Risk.
The visible satellite imagery shows a few light clouds over the mountains this morning.
The infrared satellite imagery shows that none of these clouds are thick. This image has been excluded from today’s post.
The water vapor imagery shows deep moisture over the state today. Notice the moisture swirling into the approaching upper-level low pressure system off the coast of California.
The 12Z sounding from Albuquerque shows a dry boundary layer and a classic inverted v type sounding. There was a moisture peak from 550 mb to 450 mb. There was 0.58 inches of precipitable water present in the column this morning. There was 4 J/kg of Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) and -521 J/kg of Convective Inhibition (CINH) present. There was a tiny thermal inversion, and the 0-3 km average lapse rate was 7.1 C/km.
The hodograph shows that there was 20 kts of low-level shear (mostly due to directional changes) and 30 kts of deep-layer shear (due to a mix of speed and directional changes).
The surface observations (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) show warm temperatures, and low humidity (based on the surface dewpoint depressions). The skies are clear, and the winds are calm across the entire state. There is a dryline running north to south through the eastern third of the state.
The surface pressure chart shows that most of the state is under lower pressure this morning, though the pressure gradient is not very strong. The RAP shows that a thermal low will intensify over the Four Corners area in the next six hours, and the pressure gradients will steepen a bit in the western part of the state.
The Mid-Elevation Haines chart shows that the entire state is under a significant fire threat this morning.
The CAPE chart shows that over 500 J/kg of CAPE is possible for most of the eastern border, with a few pockets exceeding 1000 J/kg of CAPE in the next six hours.
Synoptically speaking, the 300 mb NAM chart (from Unisys) shows that there will be zonal to southwesterly flow as we exit the ridge, and enter the next trough.
The 500 mb NAM chart shows a few pockets of positive vorticity that may drum up a little convection by the afternoon.
The 700 mb NAM chart shows quite a few pockets of rising air scattered around the state this morning.
The 850 mb NAM chart shows no strong thermal advection over the state this morning. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.
The Precipitation chart shows precipitation is unlikely today. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.
Today’s weather will be windy and dry. Even though there is moisture aloft, little to none of it will reach the ground as this trough approaches.
Thank you for reading my forecast.
The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The forecasted upper air soundings are from TwisterData.com.
The surface observation and upper level charts are from Unisys Weather.
The satellite data is from College of DuPage – SATRAD