New Mexico Weather: 5/3/17

Yesterday was mild, sunny and pleasant.  I did get to do some walking, and the weather was great.

This morning has been mild, still and completely sunny.  There are no clouds at all again along my commute from Rio Rancho to Magdalena.

The National Weather Service (NWS) in Albuquerque forecasts (for Socorro) a sunny day, with a high temperature of 78 F. The winds will be from the north at 10-15 mph.  This evening will mostly clear, with a low temperature of 46 F.  Winds will be from the north at 5-10 mph, becoming east after midnight.

The NWS in Albuquerque forecasts (for Magdalena) a sunny day, with a high temperature of 71 F. The winds will be from the north at 10-15 mph.  This evening will mostly clear, with a low temperature of 40 F.  Winds will be from the north at 5-10 mph, becoming east after midnight.

The NWS in Albuquerque forecasts (for Rio Rancho) a sunny day, with a high temperature of 75 F. The winds will be from the northwest at 5-10 mph.  This evening will mostly clear, with a low temperature of 45 F.  Winds will be from the northwest at 5-10 mph, becoming east after midnight.

The visible satellite imagery shows no clouds over the state today.   This image has been excluded from today’s post.

The infrared satellite imagery shows no clouds over the state today.  This image has been excluded from today’s post.

The water vapor imagery shows a small shortwave disturbance moving over the state today.  Notice the slight trough in the moisture.

The 12Z sounding from Albuquerque shows a dry atmosphere, with a slight moisture peak near 650 mb.  There was 0.26 inches of precipitable water present in the column this morning.  There was no Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) and no Convective Inhibition (CINH) present.  There was no thermal inversion, and the 0-3 km average lapse rate was 6.8 C/km.

The hodograph shows that there was 11 kts of low-level shear (mostly due to directional changes) and 43 kts of deep-layer shear (mostly due to directional changes).

The surface observations (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) show mild temperatures, and low humidity (based on the surface dewpoint depressions).  The skies are clear, and the winds are light and variable across the entire state.  There are no major frontal boundaries over the state this morning.

The surface pressure chart shows no strong pressure systems or gradients are over the state today.  The RAP shows that none are expected to develop over at least the next six hours.

The Mid-Altitude Haines Index also shows some fire threat over the entire state today.  The threat is most intense in the southwestern corner of the state, and the threat has weakened since yesterday.

Synoptically speaking, the 300 mb NAM chart (from Unisys) shows that there will be northerly flow aloft as a trough digs south through the Texas Panhandle today.  We will be in the back end of the trough.

The 500 mb NAM chart shows no major vorticity advection over the state today.  This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

The 700 mb NAM chart shows a few pockets of rapidly-rising air, particularly over the northern part of the state this afternoon.  However, the lack of moisture will limit convective storms.

The 850 mb NAM chart shows no strong thermal advection over the state this morning.  This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

The Precipitation chart shows no significant precipitation over the state today.  This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

Today will be sunny, dry and windy for the Rio Grande River Valley. Good weather will dominate today, and I intend to enjoy it.

Thank you for reading my forecast.

The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The forecasted upper air soundings are from TwisterData.com.
The surface observation and upper level charts are from Unisys Weather.
The satellite data is from College of DuPage – SATRAD

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About highplainschasing

This blog is about my tales in storm chasing. My name is Seth Price and I am an instrumentation instructor at New Mexico Tech. My amateur radio call sign is N3MRA.
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