Yesterday was mild, sunny and pleasant. I did not spend nearly enough time outside, though I did fall asleep in my car, sitting in a parking lot with the windows down.
This morning has been cool, still and completely sunny. There are no clouds at all over the New Mexico Tech campus:
The National Weather Service (NWS) in Albuquerque forecasts (for Socorro) a sunny day, with a high temperature of 82 F. The winds will be from the south at 5-10 mph. This evening will mostly clear, with a low temperature of 52 F. Winds will be from the west at 10-15 mph, becoming northwest after midnight.
The NWS in Albuquerque forecasts (for Magdalena) a sunny day, with a high temperature of 75 F. The winds will be light, becoming southwest at 10-15 mph in the afternoon. This evening will mostly clear, with a low temperature of 45 F. Winds will be from the west at 15 mph.
The NWS in Albuquerque forecasts (for Rio Rancho) a sunny day, with a high temperature of 80 F. The winds will be from the north at 5-10 mph, becoming west at 10-15 mph. This evening will be partly cloudy, with a low temperature of 47 F. Winds will be from the northwest at 10-20 mph.
The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has issued an Elevated Fire Risk for the southern half of the state, as well as a bubble of Critical Fire Risk in the southeastern corner of the state today.
The visible satellite imagery shows no clouds over the state today. This image has been excluded from today’s post.
The infrared satellite imagery shows no clouds over the state today. This image has been excluded from today’s post.
The water vapor imagery shows a small shortwave disturbance moving over the state today. Notice the slight trough in the moisture.
The 12Z sounding from Albuquerque shows a dry atmosphere, with a slight moisture peak near 550 mb. There was 0.26 inches of precipitable water present in the column this morning. There was no Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) and no Convective Inhibition (CINH) present. There was a large thermal inversion, and the 0-3 km average lapse rate was 5.8 C/km.
The hodograph shows that there was 17 kts of low-level shear (mostly due to directional changes) and 32 kts of deep-layer shear (mostly due to a mix of speed and directional changes).
The surface observations (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) show mild temperatures, and low humidity (based on the surface dewpoint depressions). The skies are clear, and the winds are light and variable across the entire state. There are no major frontal boundaries over the state this morning.
The surface pressure chart shows no strong pressure systems or gradients are over the state today. The RAP shows that none are expected to develop over at least the next six hours.
The Mid-Altitude Haines Index also shows some fire threat over the entire state today. The threat is most intense in the southeastern corner of the state.
Synoptically speaking, the 300 mb NAM chart (from Unisys) shows that we are under light zonal flow aloft today. However, another trough is digging south into the Four Corners area, creating northerly flow in this region. This trough will dig south as it moves east, and we will mostly miss the weather change associated with its movement and intensification.
The 500 mb NAM chart shows no major vorticity advection over the state today. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.
The 700 mb NAM chart shows a few pockets of rapidly-rising air, particularly over the northern part of the state this afternoon. However, the lack of moisture will limit convective storms.
The 850 mb NAM chart shows no strong thermal advection over the state this morning. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.
The Precipitation chart shows no significant precipitation over the state today. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.
Today will be sunny, dry and windy for the Rio Grande River Valley. Good weather will dominate today, and I intend to enjoy it.
Thank you for reading my forecast.
The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The forecasted upper air soundings are from TwisterData.com.
The surface observation and upper level charts are from Unisys Weather.
The satellite data is from College of DuPage – SATRAD