New Mexico Weather: 5/1/17

Yesterday was mild, sunny and pleasant.  I spent some time working in my garden, and the good weather made it a lot of fun.  I was sad when the sun went down and I had to stop weeding.

This morning has been cool, still and completely sunny.  There are no clouds at all along my commute through Albuquerque:

The National Weather Service (NWS) in Albuquerque forecasts (for Socorro) a sunny day, with a high temperature of 74 F. The winds will be from the northwest at 5-10 mph, becoming south in the afternoon.  This evening will mostly clear, with a low temperature of 49 F.  Winds will be from the south at 5-10 mph, becoming northwest after midnight.

The NWS in Albuquerque forecasts (for Magdalena) a sunny day, with a high temperature of 68 F. The winds will be from the west at 5-10 mph.  This evening will mostly clear, with a low temperature of 44 F.  Winds will be from the west at 10 mph.

The NWS in Albuquerque forecasts (for Rio Rancho) a sunny day, with a high temperature of 69 F. The winds will be from the west at 5-15 mph.  This evening will mostly clear, with a low temperature of 46 F.  Winds will be from the west at 5-15 mph, becoming north after midnight.

The NWS has issued a Fire Weather Watch for the southeastern corner of the state today.

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has issued an Elevated Fire Risk for the southwestern corner of the state today.

The visible satellite imagery shows no clouds over the state today.   This image has been excluded from today’s post.

The infrared satellite imagery shows no clouds over the state today.  This image has been excluded from today’s post.

The water vapor imagery shows nearly uniform moisture over the state today.  The mid-latitude cyclone has moved northeast, and has scoured the moisture from the west..

The 12Z sounding from Albuquerque shows  nearly-saturated atmosphere below 800 mb, but dry conditions aloft.  There was 0.26 inches of precipitable water present in the column this morning.  There was no Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) and no Convective Inhibition (CINH) present.  There was a slight thermal inversion, and the 0-3 km average lapse rate was 5.1 C/km.

The hodograph shows that there was 30 kts of low-level shear (mostly due to directional changes) and 39 kts of deep-layer shear (mostly due to a mix of speed and directional changes).

The surface observations (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) show mild temperatures, and moderate to low humidity (based on the surface dewpoint depressions) this morning.  There are clear skies over most of the state.  The winds are light and variable across the entire state.

The surface pressure chart shows no strong pressure systems or gradients are over the state today.  The RAP shows that none are expected to develop over at least the next six hours.

The Mid-Altitude Haines Index also shows some fire threat over the entire state today.

Synoptically speaking, the 300 mb NAM chart (from Unisys) shows that we are under light zonal flow aloft today.

The 500 mb NAM chart shows no major vorticity advection over the state today.  This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

The 700 mb NAM chart shows a few pockets of rapidly-rising air, particularly over the northern part of the state this afternoon.  However, the lack of moisture will limit convective storms.

The 850 mb NAM chart shows no strong thermal advection over the state this morning.  This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

The Precipitation chart shows no significant precipitation over the state today.  This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

Today will be sunny, dry and windy for the Rio Grande River Valley. Good weather will dominate today, and I intend to enjoy it.

Thank you for reading my forecast.

The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The forecasted upper air soundings are from TwisterData.com.
The surface observation and upper level charts are from Unisys Weather.
The satellite data is from College of DuPage – SATRAD

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About highplainschasing

This blog is about my tales in storm chasing. My name is Seth Price and I am an instrumentation instructor at New Mexico Tech. My amateur radio call sign is N3MRA.
This entry was posted in Fire Weather, Local WX, Photography, Practicing Concepts, Predictions, Satellite Imagery and tagged , , , , , , , , , , . Bookmark the permalink.

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