Yesterday was windy and partly cloudy all day. It rained and was quite miserable and cold. In the evening, it snowed some more, though none of it stuck here in Rio Rancho. In the Northeast Heights, the snow stuck in the medians of the road and piled up on cars.
This morning has been much better. The temperature is still cool, but the skies are clear, the winds are quite breezy, and no precipitation is falling.
The National Weather Service (NWS) in Albuquerque forecasts (for Socorro) a sunny day, with a high temperature of 68 F. The winds will be from the northwest at 15 mph. This evening will mostly clear, with a low temperature of 41 F. Winds will be from the west at 5-15 mph.
The NWS in Albuquerque forecasts (for Magdalena) a sunny day, with a high temperature of 59 F. The winds will be from the northwest at 15-20 mph. This evening will mostly clear, with a low temperature of 38 F. Winds will be from the west at 10-15 mph.
The NWS in Albuquerque forecasts (for Rio Rancho) a sunny day, with a high temperature of 62 F. The winds will be from the northwest at 10-20 mph. This evening will mostly clear, with a low temperature of 40 F. Winds will be from the west at 15-20 mph, decreasing to 5-10 mph after midnight.
The NWS has issued a Hazardous Weather Outlook for most of the state, describing that the snow will taper off, and the winds will remain high, causing blowing snow in many areas east of the central mountain chain. There is also a Red Flag Warning to the south, and you can see the Blizzard Warning over the Oklahoma Panhandle.
The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has issued an Elevated Fire Risk in the southeastern corner of the state today.
The visible satellite imagery shows cloudy skies over the northeastern corner of the state today, but clear skies elsewhere.
The infrared satellite imagery shows that most of the thicker clouds are exiting the state through the northeastern corner, as the mid-latitude cyclone moves northeast.
The water vapor imagery shows the mid-latitude cyclone over the Great Plains. There is some moisture over northeastern New Mexico, but it is exiting the state as the I mentioned above.
The 12Z sounding from Albuquerque shows nearly-saturated atmosphere below 800 mb, but dry conditions aloft. There was 0.33 inches of precipitable water present in the column this morning. There was 28 J/kg of Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) and no Convective Inhibition (CINH) present. There was no thermal inversion, and the 0-3 km average lapse rate was 5.8 C/km.
The hodograph shows that there was 27 kts of low-level shear (mostly due to directional changes) and 35 kts of deep-layer shear (mostly due to a mix of speed and directional changes).
The surface observations (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) show mild temperatures, moderate humidity (based on the surface dewpoint depressions) this morning. There are clear skies over most of the state. The winds are light and variable across the entire state.
The surface pressure shows high pressure returning to the area as the mid-latitude cyclone continues through the Great Plains. There is a moderate pressure gradient, particularly in the eastern part of the state. The RAP shows that the mid-latitude cyclone will continue east, and that the gradient will weaken slightly, thought he winds will remain moderate over at least the next six hours.
The Mid-Altitude Haines Index also shows the significant fire threat in the western part of the state, where they did not receive the snow fall that the eastern part received yesterday.
Synoptically speaking, the 300 mb NAM chart (from Unisys) shows that New Mexico is exiting the trough today, giving us moderate northwesterly flow aloft.
The 500 mb NAM chart shows no major vorticity advection over the state today. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.
The 700 mb NAM chart shows a few pockets of rapidly-rising air, particularly over the northern part of the state this afternoon. However, the lack of moisture will limit convective storms.
The 850 mb NAM chart shows that some weak Warm Air Advection is pushing into the state from the west. The winds blow across a weak thermal gradient, raising our temperature slightly.
The Precipitation chart shows no significant precipitation over the state today. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.
Today will be sunny, dry and windy for the Rio Grande River Valley. I will probably do a little gardening later, and perhaps some yard clean up. It won’t be warm, but it will be warm enough to not damage my plants, hopefully.
Thank you for reading my forecast.
The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The forecasted upper air soundings are from TwisterData.com.
The surface observation and upper level charts are from Unisys Weather.
The satellite data is from College of DuPage – SATRAD