Yesterday was windy and partly cloudy all day. It rained and was quite miserable and cold.
This morning has been even worse. If flurried all morning. Thankfully, the ground was warm enough to keep the snow from sticking. Now, it is mostly cloudy, breezy and cold, as shown by the photo from my backyard.
The National Weather Service (NWS) in Albuquerque forecasts (for Socorro) a mostly cloudy day, with a 20% chance of showers and thunderstorms, and a high temperature of 47 F. The winds will be from the north at 10 mph. This evening will mostly cloudy, with a 20% chance of showers before midnight, and a low temperature of 31 F. Winds will be from the north at 5-10 mph, becoming northwest in the evening.
The NWS in Albuquerque forecasts (for Magdalena) a mostly cloudy day, with a 40% chance of snow showers (less than 0.1 inches of accumulation), and a high temperature of 41 F. The winds will be from the north at 10 mph. This evening will mostly cloudy, with a 30% chance of showers before midnight (less than 0.5 inches of accumulation), and a low temperature of 27 F. Winds will be from the north at 5-10 mph, becoming west in the evening.
The NWS in Albuquerque forecasts (for Rio Rancho) a cloudy day, with a 60% chance of showers, and a high temperature of 40 F. The winds will be from the north at 10 mph. This evening will mostly cloudy, with a 20% chance of showers before midnight, and a low temperature of 31 F. Winds will be from the northeast at 5-10 mph, becoming west after midnight.
The NWS has issued quite a few products this morning, including Winter Storm Warnings and Winter Weather Advisories for the higher elevations and the eastern plains of the state. The NWS Watches and Warnings graphic is shown below:
The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has issued an Elevated Fire Risk, as well as a small bubble of Critical Fire Risk for the southwestern corner of the state today.
The visible satellite imagery shows cloudy skies over most of the state today. The largest mass of snow-bearing clouds has moved east of the Rio Grande River Valley, and more convective clouds are replacing it.
The infrared satellite imagery shows that much of the cloud cover is thick, with high, cool tops.
The water vapor imagery shows deep moisture over much of the state this morning.
The 12Z sounding from Albuquerque shows a damp sounding below 550 mb. There was 0.35 inches of precipitable water present in the column this morning. There was no Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) and no Convective Inhibition (CINH) present. There was no thermal inversion, and the 0-3 km average lapse rate was 6.8 C/km.
The hodograph shows that there was 1 kts of low-level shear (mostly due to directional changes) and 74 kts of deep-layer shear (mostly due to a mix of speed and directional changes).
The surface observations (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) show mild temperatures, moderate humidity (based on the surface dewpoint depressions) this morning. There are cloudy skies and some falling precipitation along a band in the eastern part of the state, as well as in little pockets scattered all over. The winds are moderate and variable across the entire state.
The surface pressure shows slightly higher pressure developing over central New Mexico, with a moderate pressure gradient extending from the center. The RAP shows that the high pressure will continue to intensify, and that the gradient will remain strong for at least the next six hours.
The Mid-Altitude Haines Index also shows the significant fire threat in the western part of the state, where they did not receive the snow fall that the eastern part is receiving.
The Critical Thicknesses Chart shows that the critical thickness contours are to our north, but that does not prevent snow from falling. Notice how they extend southward through Colorado- they will extend farther south this evening.
Synoptically speaking, the 300 mb NAM chart (from Unisys) shows that New Mexico is in a strong, deep trough. There is a closed, upper-level low centered over New Mexico. Underneath it is a weak surface high pressure system.
The 500 mb NAM chart shows a mess of positive vorticity all over the state today, associated with the strong trough.
The 700 mb NAM chart is unavailable at this time.
The 850 mb NAM chart shows the remnants of the cold front that pushed through the area yesterday. Notice the much colder air over the eastern plains and central New Mexico today.
The Precipitation chart shows that rain and snow are likely today across most of the state. The heaviest precipitation will extend along an axis from Clines Corners to Clayton, and will likely be snow.
Today is awful. It is the 29th of April, and it flurried all morning. Now, it is cold and windy, even though the sun is peaking out occasionally. I expect more rainy, cold, breezy, cloudy, weather- you know, the kind of weather the rest of the world sees and I moved to NM to avoid.
Thank you for reading my forecast.
The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The forecasted upper air soundings are from TwisterData.com.
The surface observation and upper level charts are from Unisys Weather.
The satellite data is from College of DuPage – SATRAD