New Mexico Weather: 4/28/17

Yesterday was windy and partly cloudy all day.  The temperature dropped as well.

This morning has been cool, cloudy and breezy.  The skies were almost completely covered here in Socorro this morning.

The National Weather Service (NWS) in Albuquerque forecasts (for Socorro) a partly sunny day, with a 40% chance of showers and thunderstorms, and a high temperature of 69 F. The winds will be from the west at 10-20 mph.  This evening will mostly cloudy, with a 50% chance of showers and thunderstorms, and a low temperature of 50 F.   Winds will be from the northwest at 15-20 mph, decreasing to 10-15 mph after midnight.

The NWS in Albuquerque forecasts (for Magdalena) a partly sunny day, with a 50% chance of showers and thunderstorms, and a high temperature of 61 F. The winds will be from the west at 10-20 mph.  This evening will mostly cloudy, with a 60% chance of showers, shifting to snow showers in the evening, and a low temperature of 32 F.   Less than 0.5 inches of snow is possible.  Winds will be from the northwest at 15-20 mph, decreasing to 10-15 mph after midnight.

The NWS in Albuquerque forecasts (for Rio Rancho) a mostly cloudy, with a 50% chance of showers and thunderstorms, and a high temperature of 56 F. The winds will be from the west at 10-15 mph.  This evening will cloudy, with a 60% chance of showers, shifting to snow showers in the evening, and a low temperature of 37 F.   No snow accumulation is expected.  Winds will be from the northwest at 10 mph, becoming northeast after midnight.

The NWS has issued quite a few products this morning, including Red Flag Warnings, High Wind Warnings and Wind Advisories.  Some of the winds today could be damaging, particularly in and to the east of the central Mountain Chain.  The NWS Watches and Warnings graphic is shown below:

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has issued an Elevated Fire Risk for the southern half of the state today.

The visible satellite imagery shows cloudy skies over most of the state today.  You can see a ripple of mountain-wave pattern in the edges of this cloud cover.

The infrared satellite imagery shows that much of the cloud cover is thick, with high, cool tops.

The water vapor imagery shows deep moisture over much of the state this morning.

The 12Z sounding from Albuquerque shows an inverted-v type sounding, with humid air between 650 mb and 550 mb.  There was 0.36 inches of precipitable water present in the column this morning.  There was no Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) and no Convective Inhibition (CINH) present.  There was no thermal inversion, and the 0-3 km average lapse rate was 6.3 C/km.

The hodograph shows that there was 19 kts of low-level shear (mostly due to directional changes) and 98 kts of deep-layer shear (mostly due to speed changes).

The surface observations (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) show mild temperatures, moderate humidity (based on the surface dewpoint depressions) this morning.  There are cloudy skies and some falling precipitation in the northwestern corner of the state.  The winds are moderate and variable across the entire state.

The surface pressure shows a surface low pressure system over the western part of the state, and a moderate pressure gradient all around it.  The RAP shows that the low pressure system will expand and deepen, steepening the pressure gradient, over the next six hours.

The Mid-Altitude Haines Index also shows the significant fire threat.

Synoptically speaking, the 300 mb NAM chart (from Unisys) shows that New Mexico is entering a shortwave trough today.

The 500 mb NAM chart shows a few pockets of vorticity moving through the northern part of the state, associated with the trough.

The 700 mb NAM chart shows rapidly-rising air through the northern part of the state today.  Some of this is due to strong winds and orthographic lift, and some is due to lift along the cold front.

The 850 mb NAM chart shows that cold air has advected south, dropping temperatures across the state today.   This trend will continue into this weekend.

The Precipitation chart shows that rain is possible in the northern and northwestern parts of the state today.

This trough ruined everything.  We went from spring to winter, with a chance of SNOW tonight and tomorrow night for parts of central New Mexico, and a strong chance of accumulating snow in the northwest.  And May starts in just a few days.

Move to New Mexico, they said.  It’s sunny and warm, they said.

Thank you for reading my forecast.

The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The forecasted upper air soundings are from TwisterData.com.
The surface observation and upper level charts are from Unisys Weather.
The satellite data is from College of DuPage – SATRAD

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About highplainschasing

This blog is about my tales in storm chasing. My name is Seth Price and I am an instrumentation instructor at New Mexico Tech. My amateur radio call sign is N3MRA.
This entry was posted in Fire Weather, Local WX, Photography, Practicing Concepts, Predictions, Radar Imagery, Satellite Imagery and tagged , , , , , , , , , , . Bookmark the permalink.

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