Yesterday was mostly sunny and mild. It was not as breezy as I thought it would be in Socorro or Magdalena.
This morning has been mild and breezy. The skies were partly cloudy this morning, as shown by the numerous lenticular clouds along my commute from Rio Rancho to Socorro:
The National Weather Service (NWS) in Albuquerque forecasts (for Socorro) a sunny day, with a high temperature of 81 F. The winds will be from the west at 15-20 mph, increasing to 20-30 mph and gusting to 40 mph. This evening will partly cloudy, with a low temperature of 51 F. Winds will be from the west at 20-30 mph, gusting to 40 mph, but decreasing to 10-20 mph after midnight.
The NWS in Albuquerque forecasts (for Magdalena) a mostly sunny day, with a high temperature of 73 F. The winds will be from the west at 25-30 mph, gusting to 45 mph. This evening will partly cloudy, with a low temperature of 44 F. Winds will be from the west at 25-30 mph, gusting to 40 mph, but decreasing to 15-20 mph after midnight.
The NWS in Albuquerque forecasts (for Rio Rancho) a mostly sunny day, with a high temperature of 70 F. The winds will be from the west at 25-30 mph, gusting to 40 mph. This evening will partly cloudy, with a low temperature of 42 F. Winds will be from the northwest at 20-30 mph, gusting to 40 mph, but decreasing to 10-20 mph after midnight.
The NWS has issued quite a few products this morning, including Red Flag Warnings, High Wind Warnings and Wind Advisories. Some of the winds today could be damaging, particularly in and to the east of the central Mountain Chain. The NWS Watches and Warnings graphic is shown below:
The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has issued an Elevated Fire Risk for most of the state and a Critical Fire Risk for the the southern half of the state today.
The visible satellite imagery shows a few of the lenticulars near the mountains, but otherwise, sunny skies.
The infrared satellite imagery shows that many of the lenticular clouds are thick, with high, cool tops.
The water vapor imagery shows moisture advecting into the state from the northwest, and spiraling into an upper-level low pressure system that is developing in eastern New Mexico.
The 12Z sounding from Albuquerque shows an inverted-v type sounding, with saturated air above 650 mb, even though the boundary layer was dry. There was 0.44 inches of precipitable water present in the column this morning. There was no Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) and no Convective Inhibition (CINH) present. There was no thermal inversion, and the 0-3 km average lapse rate was 7.6 C/km.
The hodograph shows that there was 46 kts of low-level shear (mostly due to directional changes) and 88 kts of deep-layer shear (mostly due to speed changes).
The surface observations (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) show mild temperatures, low humidity (based on the surface dewpoint depressions) this morning. The winds are moderate and variable across the entire state, trending towards a developing low pressure system in eastern New Mexico and west Texas.
The surface pressure shows a surface low pressure system in the Texas Panhandle, and a moderate pressure gradient across the state this morning. The RAP shows that diurnal heating will deepen and expand the low pressure system, increasing the pressure gradient throughout at least the next six hours.
The Fosberg Index is expected to increase significantly over the next six hours, highlighting the fire threat today.
The Mid-Altitude Haines Index also shows the significant fire threat.
Synoptically speaking, the 300 mb NAM chart (from Unisys) shows strong zonal to northwest flow over the state today.
The 500 mb NAM chart shows a few pockets of vorticity moving through the northern part of the state, associated with the trough.
The 700 mb NAM chart is unavailable at this time.
The 850 mb NAM chart shows no strong thermal advection over the state today. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.
The Precipitation chart shows that rain is possible in the northern tier of counties.
Today will be windy. Expect blowing dust and the potential for rapidly-spreading wildfires. We will enter a cool spell starting tomorrow, and hopefully a little rain will dampen the fire risk this weekend.
Thank you for reading my forecast.
The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The forecasted upper air soundings are from TwisterData.com.
The surface observation and upper level charts are from Unisys Weather.
The satellite data is from College of DuPage – SATRAD