Yesterday was cloudy and drizzled off and on all day. A few non-severe thunderstorms passed north of Belen as I commuted through.
The storm passed quickly, leaving a rainbow behind:
This morning has been cool, clear and sunny. There were no clouds in the sky along my commute through Albuquerque:
The National Weather Service (NWS) in Albuquerque forecasts (for Socorro) a sunny day, with a high temperature of 73 F. The winds will be from the northwest at 10-15 mph. This evening will mostly clear, with a low temperature of 50 F. Winds will be from the west at 10-15 mph.
The NWS in Albuquerque forecasts (for Magdalena) a sunny day, with a high temperature of 65 F. The winds will be from the northwest at 10-15 mph. This evening will partly cloudy, with a low temperature of 44 F. Winds will be from the west at 15-20 mph, gusting to 30 mph.
The NWS in Albuquerque forecasts (for Rio Rancho) a sunny day, with a high temperature of 67 F. The winds will be from the west at 10-20 mph. This evening will partly cloudy, with a low temperature of 47 F. Winds will be from the west at 15-20 mph, decreasing to 5-10 mph after midnight.
The NWS has issued quite a few products this morning, including Red Flag Warnings, Wind Advisories, and Fire Weather Watches (Thursday). The NWS Watches and Warnings graphic is shown below:
The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has issued an Elevated Fire Risk for the southern part of the state today.
The visible satellite imagery is unavailable at this time.
The infrared satellite imagery shows no thick clouds over the state today. This image has been excluded from today’s post.
The water vapor imagery shows moisture swirling around a point northwest of Amarillo.
The morning Albuquerque sounding is unavailable at this time.
The surface observations (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) show cool temperatures, moderate humidity (based on the surface dewpoint depressions) this morning. Skies are sunny, and winds are generally from the southeast. There are no major boundaries over the state so far this morning.
The surface pressure shows a surface low pressure system in Texas, but only a slight pressure gradient over the state this morning. The RAP shows that the pressure gradient will weaken as pressure increases over the state, and the low pressure system moves east over the next six hours.
The Mid-Altitude Haines Index also shows the significant fire threat in the southern part of the state.
Synoptically speaking, the 300 mb NAM chart (from Unisys) shows moderate northwest flow as the trough deforms over the state this morning. There is also an approaching jetstreak that will impact the state later this week.
The 500 mb NAM chart shows no strong vorticity advection over the state today. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.
The 700 mb NAM chart is unavailable at this time.
The 850 mb NAM chart shows no strong thermal advection over the state today. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.
The Precipitation chart shows little chance of rain accumulation today. Rain is possible, particularly in the northeastern part of the state.
Today will be sunny and breezy, but a little cooler than last week. The winds will increase through the afternoon and into the evening, drying out the vegetation and increasing our fire threat.
Thank you for reading my forecast.
The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The forecasted upper air soundings are from TwisterData.com.
The surface observation and upper level charts are from Unisys Weather.
The satellite data is from College of DuPage – SATRAD