Yesterday was mostly sunny and warm. It was a beautiful day, all day.
It has been sunny, warm and clear this morning. There is some haze and dust, but no clouds in the sky over Albuquerque this morning.
The National Weather Service (NWS) in Albuquerque forecasts (for Socorro) a sunny day, with a high temperature of 87 F. The winds will be from the southwest at 5-15 mph, increasing to 20-30 mph and gusting to 40 mph. This evening will partly cloudy, with a low temperature of 54 F. Winds will be from the west at 20-30 mph, gusting to 40 mph, but decreasing to 10-20 mph after midnight.
The NWS in Albuquerque forecasts (for Magdalena) a sunny day, with a high temperature of 79 F. The winds will be from the west at 15-20 mph, increasing to 25 to 30 mph in the afternoon, gusting as high as 40 mph. This evening will be partly clear, with a low temperature of 47 F. Winds will be from the west at 25-30 mph, gusting to 45 45 mph, but then decreasing to 15-20 mph after midnight.
The NWS in Albuquerque forecasts (for Rio Rancho) a sunny day, with a high temperature of 84 F. The winds will be from the southwest at 10-20 mph, increasing to 20-30 mph in the afternoon, gusting to 40 mph. This evening will be partly cloudy, with a low temperature of 54 F. The winds will be from the west at 25-30 mph, gusting to 40 mph, but then decreasing to 15-20 mph after midnight.
The NWS has issued a Hazardous Weather Outlook and Red Flag Warnings for almost the entire state today. There are also some Wind Advisories that are not visible on the Watches and Warnings Map below, as it is dominated with Red Flag Warnings.
The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has issued an Elevated Fire Risk and a Critical Fire Risk for the Four Corners area today.
The visible satellite imagery is unavailable at this time.
The infrared satellite imagery shows that the clouds over the east aren’t very thick, and have low, warm tops. This image has been excluded from today’s post.
The water vapor imagery shows moisture all around the state, and it seems to be approaching from all sides. However, the air over New Mexico is relatively dry by comparison.
The 12Z sounding from Albuquerque shows a relatively dry atmosphere, with moisture evenly mixed throughout. There was 0.26 inches of precipitable water present in the column this morning. There was no Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) and no Convective Inhibition (CINH) present. There was a large thermal inversion, and the 0-3 km average lapse rate was 6.1 C/km.
The hodograph shows that there was 25 kts of low-level shear (mostly due to directional changes) and 63 kts of deep-layer shear (mostly due to speed changes).
The surface observations (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) show mild temperatures, low humidity (based on the surface dewpoint depressions) this morning. Sunny skies prevail over the state. Winds are light and variable so far today, and no major frontal boundaries are present over the state this morning.
The surface pressure shows a thermal low over the center of the state this morning, though no strong pressure gradients are present. The RAP shows that the low pressure system will remain, and while no strong gradient develops, the winds will increase over the next six hours.
The Fosberg Index is expected to increase significantly over the next six hours, highlighting the fire threat today.
The Mid-Altitude Haines Index also shows the significant fire threat.
Synoptically speaking, the 300 mb NAM chart (from Unisys) shows light zonal flow over the state today.
The 500 mb NAM chart shows no vorticity advection over the state today. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.
The 700 mb NAM chart is unavailable at this time.
The 850 mb NAM chart shows no strong thermal advection over the state today. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.
The Precipitation chart shows that precipitation is unlikely across the state today. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.
Today will be windy and dusty. Low humidity, high temperatures and strong winds will boost the fire threat significantly.
Thank you for reading my forecast.
The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The forecasted upper air soundings are from TwisterData.com.
The surface observation and upper level charts are from Unisys Weather.
The satellite data is from College of DuPage – SATRAD