New Mexico Weather: 4/23/17

Yesterday was mostly sunny and warm.  The weather turned a little chilly and breezy by the evening.

It has been sunny, warm and breezy this morning.  There are high clouds all over the sky, but they are very thin.

The National Weather Service (NWS) in Albuquerque forecasts (for Socorro) a sunny day, with a high temperature of 78 F. The winds will be from the south at 20-25 mph, gusting to 35 mph.  This evening will mostly clear, with a low temperature of 53 F.   Winds will be from the south at 15-25 mph, gusting to 35 mph, but decreasing to 5-15 mph after midnight.

The NWS in Albuquerque forecasts (for Magdalena) a sunny day, with a high temperature of 74 F. The winds will be from the south at 20 mph, gusting as high as 30 mph.  This evening will be mostly clear, with a low temperature of 47 F.  Winds will be from the southwest at 15-20 mph, decreasing to 10-15 mph after midnight.

The NWS in Albuquerque forecasts (for Rio Rancho) a sunny day, with a high temperature of 78 F. The winds will be from the south at 15 mph.  This evening will be mostly clear, with a  low temperature of 52 F.  The winds will be from the southwest at 15-20 mph, decreasing to 5-10 mph after midnight.

The NWS has issued a Hazardous Weather Outlook and Red Flag Warnings for Monday for most of the state tomorrow:

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has issued an Elevated Fire Risk and a Critical Fire Risk for the Four Corners area today.

The visible satellite imagery shows very light, high clouds over much of the state this morning.

The infrared satellite imagery shows that the clouds over the east aren’t very thick, and have low, warm tops.  This image has been excluded from today’s post.

The water vapor imagery shows extremely dry air aloft over the state this morning.

The 12Z sounding from Albuquerque shows a slightly damper boundary layer this morning, as compared to days earlier this week.  There was 0.32 inches of precipitable water present in the column this morning.  There was no Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) and no Convective Inhibition (CINH) present.  There was no thermal inversion, and the 0-3 km average lapse rate was 4.0 C/km.

The hodograph shows that there was 15 kts of low-level shear (mostly due to directional changes) and 30 kts of deep-layer shear (mostly due to speed changes).

The surface observations (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) show mild temperatures, moderate humidity (based on the surface dewpoint depressions) this morning.  Sunny skies prevail over the state.  Winds are moderate, and no major frontal boundaries are present over the state today.

The surface pressure shows a moderate pressure gradient across the boundaries of the state as slightly higher pressure is weakening due to diurnal heating.  The RAP shows that the pressure will drop over the next six hours, and that the gradient and winds will remain.

 

The Mid-Altitude Haines Index reveals the widespread fire threat over the state today.

Synoptically speaking, the 300 mb NAM chart (from Unisys) weak southwesterly flow, as another shortwave trough digs south into Arizona.

The 500 mb NAM chart shows no vorticity advection over the state today.   This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

The 700 mb NAM chart shows a few small pockets of rapidly-rising air in the northern part of the state.

The 850 mb NAM chart shows no strong thermal advection over the state today.  This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

The Precipitation chart shows that precipitation is unlikely across the state today.  This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

Today will be a pleasant day.  The winds will be breezy throughout the day.  I forgot to hit “Publish” like three hours ago, so this is all out of date anyhow.

Thank you for reading my forecast.

The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The forecasted upper air soundings are from TwisterData.com.
The surface observation and upper level charts are from Unisys Weather.
The satellite data is from College of DuPage – SATRAD

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About highplainschasing

This blog is about my tales in storm chasing. My name is Seth Price and I am an instrumentation instructor at New Mexico Tech. My amateur radio call sign is N3MRA.
This entry was posted in Fire Weather, Local WX, Photography, Practicing Concepts, Predictions, Satellite Imagery and tagged , , , , , , , , , , . Bookmark the permalink.

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