Yesterday was mostly sunny and warm. The weather turned a little chilly and breezy by the evening. Also, the skies clouded up by late afternoon.
It has been sunny, mild and still this morning. There were clear but hazy in Rio Rancho.
The National Weather Service (NWS) in Albuquerque forecasts (for Socorro) a sunny day, with a high temperature of 76 F. The winds will be from the northeast at 10 mph, becoming southeast in the afternoon. This evening will mostly clear, with a low temperature of 44 F. Winds will be from the east at 5-15 mph.
The NWS in Albuquerque forecasts (for Magdalena) a sunny day, with a high temperature of 70 F. The winds will be from the east at 5-10 mph. This evening will be mostly clear, with a low temperature of 40 F. Winds will be from the east at 5-15 mph, becoming south after midnight.
The NWS in Albuquerque forecasts (for Rio Rancho) a sunny day, with a high temperature of 72 F. The winds will be from the southeast at 5-10 mph. This evening will be mostly clear, with a low temperature of 43 F. The winds will be from the east at 5-10 mph.
The NWS has issued a Hazardous Weather Outlook and Red Flag Warnings for Monday for most of the state. More about this situation as it develops.
The visible satellite imagery shows that the eastern half of the state is under light cloud cover.
The infrared satellite imagery shows that the clouds over the east aren’t very thick, and have low, warm tops.
The water vapor imagery shows that there is some moisture moving zonally across the northern part of the state this morning.
The 12Z sounding from Albuquerque shows a slightly damper boundary layer this morning, as compared to days earlier this week. There was 0.32 inches of precipitable water present in the column this morning. There was no Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) and no Convective Inhibition (CINH) present. There was a tiny thermal inversion, and the 0-3 km average lapse rate was 4.5 C/km.
The hodograph shows that there was 14 kts of low-level shear (mostly due to directional changes) and 54 kts of deep-layer shear (mostly due to speed changes).
The surface observations (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) show mild temperatures, moderate humidity (based on the surface dewpoint depressions) this morning. The eastern half of the state is cloudy, while the western half is sunny. Winds are light and variable, and no major frontal boundaries are present over the state today.
The surface pressure shows a moderate pressure gradient across the northeastern corner of the state this morning. There is high pressure over the central to northern Great Plains.
The RAP shows that this gradient will steepen over at least the next six hours. A thermal low will develop over west Texas, and the high pressure will only weaken slightly, increasing the pressure gradient across much of New Mexico this afternoon.
Synoptically speaking, the 300 mb NAM chart (from Unisys) moderate northwesterly flow, as we exit a small, shortwave trough.
The 500 mb NAM chart shows no vorticity advection over the state today. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.
The 700 mb NAM chart shows a few small pockets of rapidly-rising air in the northern part of the state.
The 850 mb NAM chart shows that some Cold Air Advection (CAA) will drift in from the northeast as a weak back door cold front.
The Precipitation chart shows that some precipitation is possible over the northeastern corner of the state by this evening.
Today will be a pleasant day. The winds will be weaker and the temperature a little cooler than yesterday. It will be a great day for going outside.
Thank you for reading my forecast.
The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The forecasted upper air soundings are from TwisterData.com.
The surface observation and upper level charts are from Unisys Weather.
The satellite data is from College of DuPage – SATRAD