New Mexico Weather: 4/21/17

Yesterday was mostly sunny and warm.  The weather turned a little chilly and breezy by the evening.

It has been sunny, mild and still this morning.  There were clear skies over Atrisco Heritage Academy this morning:

The National Weather Service (NWS) in Albuquerque forecasts (for Socorro) a sunny day, with a high temperature of 82 F. The winds will be from the north at 15 mph.  This evening will mostly clear, with a low temperature of 44 F.   Winds will be from the north at 10-15 mph.

The NWS in Albuquerque forecasts (for Magdalena) a sunny day, with a high temperature of 74 F. The winds will be from the northwest at 15-20 mph.  This evening will be mostly clear, with a low temperature of 44 F.  Winds will be from the west at 15-20 mph, but decreasing to 5-10 mph after midnight.

The NWS in Albuquerque forecasts (for Rio Rancho) a mostly sunny day, with a high temperature of 74 F. The winds will be northwest at 15-20 mph, gusting to 30 mph.  This evening will be mostly clear, with a  low temperature of 42 F.  The winds will be from the northwest at 15-20 mph, gusting to 30 mph, becoming north at 5-10 mph after midnight.

The NWS has issued a Hazardous Weather Outlook and Red Flag Warnings for much of the land east of the central mountain chain.  The NWS Watches and Warnings map is shown below:

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has issued an Elevated Fire Risk for a good chunk of the state, as well as a large swath of Critical Fire Risk over the eastern part of the state.

The visible satellite imagery is unavailable at this time.

The infrared satellite imagery shows no thick clouds over the state this morning.  This image has been excluded from today’s post.

The water vapor imagery shows a dry air mass over the state this morning.

The 12Z sounding from Albuquerque shows a dry atmosphere this morning.  There was 0.16 inches of precipitable water present in the column this morning.  There was no Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) and no Convective Inhibition (CINH) present.  There was a tiny thermal inversion, and the 0-3 km average lapse rate was 5.4 C/km.

The hodograph shows that there was 21 kts of low-level shear (mostly due to directional changes) and 74 kts of deep-layer shear (mostly due to speed changes).

The surface observations (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) show mild temperatures, low humidity (based on the surface dewpoint depressions) and sunny skies over the state this morning.  Winds are light and variable, and no major frontal boundaries are present over the state today.

The surface pressure shows a moderate pressure gradient across the northeastern corner of the state this morning.  The RAP shows that this gradient will persist over at least the next six hours.

The Mid-Elevation Haines Index shows the elevated risk for fire, which is above 5 for almost the entire state, particularly in the western part of the state.

The Fosberg Index also shows the threat of fire today.

Synoptically speaking, the 300 mb NAM chart (from Unisys) moderate northwesterly flow, as we exit a small, shortwave trough.

The 500 mb NAM chart shows no vorticity advection over the state today.   This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

The 700 mb NAM chart shows no rapidly-rising air over the state today.   This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

The 850 mb NAM chart shows no major thermal advection over the state today.  This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

The Precipitation chart shows that precipitation is unlikely, statewide, today.  This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

Today may get windy later this afternoon.  There is a threat of fire, due to the gusty winds.  Today is less humid than yesterday, so the fire risk is greater today in many areas.

Thank you for reading my forecast.

The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The forecasted upper air soundings are from TwisterData.com.
The surface observation and upper level charts are from Unisys Weather.
The satellite data is from College of DuPage – SATRAD

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About highplainschasing

This blog is about my tales in storm chasing. My name is Seth Price and I am an instrumentation instructor at New Mexico Tech. My amateur radio call sign is N3MRA.
This entry was posted in Fire Weather, Local WX, Photography, Practicing Concepts, Predictions, Satellite Imagery and tagged , , , , , , , , , , . Bookmark the permalink.

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