Yesterday was mostly sunny and warm. The weather turned a little chilly and breezy by the evening.
It has been sunny, mild and still this morning. There are sunny over Magdalena this morning:
The National Weather Service (NWS) in Albuquerque forecasts (for Socorro) a sunny day, with a high temperature of 85 F. The winds will be from the east at 15 mph, becoming south in the afternoon. This evening will mostly clear, with a low temperature of 49 F. Winds will be from the south at 10-20 mph, becoming northwest after midnight.
The NWS in Albuquerque forecasts (for Magdalena) a sunny day, with a high temperature of 77 F. The winds will be from the southeast at 10-20 mph, becoming southwest in the afternoon. This evening will be mostly clear, with a low temperature of 44 F. Winds will be from the west at 15-20 mph, gusting to 30 mph, but decreasing to 10-15 mph after midnight.
The NWS in Albuquerque forecasts (for Rio Rancho) a mostly sunny day, with a high temperature of 78 F. The winds will be southeast at 15-20 mph. This evening will be mostly clear, with a low temperature of 47 F. The winds will be from the south at 15-20 mph, gusting to 30 mph, becoming north after midnight.
The NWS has issued a Hazardous Weather Outlook and Red Flag Warnings for much of the land east of the central mountain chain. The NWS Watches and Warnings map is shown below:
The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has issued an Elevated Fire Risk for a good chunk of the state, as well as a large swath of Critical Fire Risk over the western part of the state.
There is also a small piece of the northeastern corner of the state that is under a Marginal Risk for severe weather, according to the SPC. The primary threats will be gusty winds and perhaps some large hail.
The visible satellite imagery is unavailable at this time.
The infrared satellite imagery shows no thick clouds over the state this morning. This image has been excluded from today’s post.
The water vapor imagery shows a dry air mass over the state this morning.
The 12Z sounding from Albuquerque shows a dry atmosphere this morning, with a moisture peak at 600 mb. There was 0.30 inches of precipitable water present in the column this morning. There was no Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) and no Convective Inhibition (CINH) present. There was a tiny thermal inversion, and the 0-3 km average lapse rate was 6.0 C/km.
The hodograph shows that there was 7 kts of low-level shear (mostly due to directional changes) and 57 kts of deep-layer shear (mostly due to speed changes).
The surface observations (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) show mild temperatures, moderate humidity (based on the surface dewpoint depressions) and sunny skies over the state this morning. Winds are light and variable, and no major frontal boundaries are present over the state today. There is a dryline running north to south over the eastern third of the state, as shown in the dewpoint rise in the east.
The surface pressure chart shows slightly higher pressure system over eastern Colorado, and a moderate pressure gradient across the northeastern corner of the state this morning. The RAP shows that this gradient will persist over at least the next six hours as the low pressure system moves east and expands with diurnal heating.
The Mid-Elevation Haines Index shows the elevated risk for fire, which is above 5 for almost the entire state, particularly in the western part of the state.
Synoptically speaking, the 300 mb NAM chart (from Unisys) moderate zonal flow over the state, as the weak shortwave trough passes through the state.
The 500 mb NAM chart shows some weak Positive Vorticity Advection (PVA) moving through the northern part of the state ahead of the trough.
The 700 mb NAM chart shows some rapidly-rising air over the center of the state today.
The 850 mb NAM chart shows that a back door cold front is attempting to push into the northeastern corner of the state. By 00 Z, the Cold Air Advection (CAA) is weak; perhaps the front will have stalled.
The Precipitation chart shows that precipitation is unlikely, statewide, today. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.
Today may get windy later this afternoon. There is a threat of fire, due to the gusty winds. However, this threat has been tempered by slightly higher dewpoints today as compared to yesterday. Even so, wildfire will be a big threat today.
Thank you for reading my forecast.
The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The forecasted upper air soundings are from TwisterData.com.
The surface observation and upper level charts are from Unisys Weather.
The satellite data is from College of DuPage – SATRAD