Yesterday was mostly sunny and warm. The clouds eventually mixed out and the breeze picked up in the evening.
It has been sunny, mild and still this morning. There are are clear skies over downtown Albuquerque this morning.
The National Weather Service (NWS) in Albuquerque forecasts (for Socorro) a sunny day, with a high temperature of 86 F. The winds will be from the northwest at 10-15 mph, becoming southwest in the afternoon. This evening will mostly clear, with a low temperature of 50 F. Winds will be from the southwest at 5-15 mph, becoming northwest after midnight.
The NWS in Albuquerque forecasts (for Magdalena) a sunny day, with a high temperature of 78 F. The winds will be from the northwest at 10-15 mph. This evening will be mostly clear, with a low temperature of 45 F. Winds will be from the west at 10-15 mph.
The NWS in Albuquerque forecasts (for Rio Rancho) a sunny day, with a high temperature of 81 F. The winds will be west at 10-15 mph. This evening will be mostly clear, with a low temperature of 51 F. The winds will be from the west at 5-15 mph, becoming north after midnight.
The NWS has issued a Hazardous Weather Outlook and Red Flag Warnings for much of the land east of the central mountain chain. The NWS Watches and Warnings map is shown below:
The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has issued an Elevated Fire Risk for a good chunk of the state, as well as a bubble of Critical Fire Risk centered over Tucumcari.
The visible satellite imagery is unavailable at this time.
The infrared satellite imagery shows no thick clouds over the state this morning. This image has been excluded from today’s post.
The water vapor imagery shows a dry air mass over the state this morning.
The 12Z sounding from Albuquerque shows a dry atmosphere this morning. There was 0.24 inches of precipitable water present in the column this morning. There was no Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) and no Convective Inhibition (CINH) present. There was no thermal inversion, and the 0-3 km average lapse rate was 5.0 C/km.
The hodograph shows that there was 8 kts of low-level shear (mostly due to directional changes) and 52 kts of deep-layer shear (mostly due to speed changes).
The surface observations (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) show mild temperatures, low humidity (based on the surface dewpoint depressions) and sunny skies over the state this morning. Winds are light and variable, and no major frontal boundaries are present over the state today. There is a dryline running north to south over the eastern third of the state, as shown in the dewpoint rise in the east.
The surface pressure chart shows that there is a low pressure system over eastern Colorado, and a moderate pressure gradient across the northeastern corner of the state this morning. The RAP shows that this gradient will persist over at least the next six hours as the low pressure system moves east and expands with diurnal heating.
The Mid-Elevation Haines Index shows the elevated risk for fire, which is above 5 for almost the entire state.
Synoptically speaking, the 300 mb NAM chart (from Unisys) shows some southwesterly flow, increasing in speed throughout the day. A small shortwave trough is developing.
The 500 mb NAM chart shows no pockets of strong vorticity advection. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.
The 700 mb NAM chart shows no major pockets of rapidly-rising air over the state today. This chart has been excluded from today’s post
The 850 mb NAM chart shows no strong thermal advection over the state today. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.
The Precipitation chart shows that precipitation is unlikely, statewide, today. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.
Today is going to be another day for enjoying the outdoors. Precipitation will be unlikely, though the winds will increase through the afternoon and evening. However, with the dry air and increasing wind speeds, there is a greater risk of fire than we have seen for several days.
Thank you for reading my forecast.
The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The forecasted upper air soundings are from TwisterData.com.
The surface observation and upper level charts are from Unisys Weather.
The satellite data is from College of DuPage – SATRAD