Yesterday was mostly sunny and warm. The skies were clear in the morning, but became partly cloudy by the evening, with high cirrus clouds covering over half of the sky. The winds remained light all day.
It has been sunny, mild and still this morning. There are are some high cirrus clouds around Socorro this morning.
The National Weather Service (NWS) in Albuquerque forecasts (for Socorro) a sunny day, with a high temperature of 86 F. The winds will be from the northwest at 5-10 mph, becoming southeast in the afternoon. This evening will mostly clear, with a low temperature of 48 F. Winds will be from the south at 10-15 mph, becoming northwest after midnight.
The NWS in Albuquerque forecasts (for Magdalena) a sunny day, with a high temperature of 79 F. The winds will be from the southeast at 5-10 mph. This evening will be mostly clear, with a low temperature of 46 F. Winds will be from the west at 15 mph.
The NWS in Albuquerque forecasts (for Rio Rancho) a mostly sunny day, with a high temperature of 82 F. The winds will be west at 5-15 mph, becoming southwest in the afternoon. This evening will be partly cloudy, with a low temperature of 51 F. The winds will be from the west at 5-15 mph.
The NWS has issued a Hazardous Weather Outlook and several Fire Weather Watches concerning the increasing winds and dry conditions this afternoon.
The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has issued an Elevated Fire Risk for a good chunk of the state as well.
The visible satellite imagery is unavailable at this time.
The infrared satellite imagery shows a few thick clouds west of the central mountain chain.
The water vapor imagery shows that a small, shortwave trough has brought some moisture to the state this morning, but there is dry air behind it.
The 12Z sounding from Albuquerque shows a dry atmosphere below 300 mb this morning. There was 0.29 inches of precipitable water present in the column this morning. There was no Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) and no Convective Inhibition (CINH) present. There was a large thermal inversion, and the 0-3 km average lapse rate was 5.0 C/km.
The hodograph shows that there was 13 kts of low-level shear (mostly due to directional changes) and 21 kts of deep-layer shear (mostly due to a mix of speed and directional changes).
The surface observations (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) show mild temperatures, low humidity (based on the surface dewpoint depressions) and sunny skies over the state this morning. Winds are light and variable, and no major frontal boundaries are present over the state today.
The surface pressure chart shows that there are no strong pressure systems or gradients over the state today. The RAP shows that none are expected to develop over at least the next six hours.
The Mid-Elevation Haines Index shows the elevated risk for fire, especially in the south this morning.
Synoptically speaking, the 300 mb NAM chart (from Unisys) shows light northwesterly due to a small ridge before the next shortwave trough.
The 500 mb NAM chart shows no pockets of strong vorticity advection. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.
The 700 mb NAM chart shows a few pockets of rapidly-rising air, particularly in the northern and northeastern parts of the state today.
The 850 mb NAM chart shows no strong thermal advection over the state today. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.
The Precipitation chart shows that precipitation is unlikely, statewide, today. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.
Today is going to be another day for enjoying the outdoors. Precipitation will be unlikely, though the winds will increase through the afternoon and evening.
Thank you for reading my forecast.
The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The forecasted upper air soundings are from TwisterData.com.
The surface observation and upper level charts are from Unisys Weather.
The satellite data is from College of DuPage – SATRAD