New Mexico Weather: 4/16/17

Yesterday was mostly sunny and warm. I helped set up a flower bed yesterday afternoon, as the weather was perfect for working in the garden.

It has been sunny, mild and still this morning.  There are no clouds in the sky, as shown from this photo in my backyard:

The National Weather Service (NWS) in Albuquerque forecasts (for Socorro) a sunny day, with a high temperature of 83 F. The winds will be from the north at 5-10 mph, becoming south in the afternoon.  This evening will be partly cloudy, with a low temperature of 46 F.   Winds will be from the south at 5-10 mph, becoming northwest after midnight.

The NWS in Albuquerque forecasts (for Magdalena) a sunny day, with a high temperature of 75 F. The winds will be from the west at 5 mph, becoming southeast in the afternoon.  This evening will be partly cloudy, with a low temperature of 42 F.  Winds will be from the southeast at 5-15 mph, becoming west after midnight.

The NWS in Albuquerque forecasts (for Rio Rancho) a sunny day, with a high temperature of 80 F. The winds will be southwest at 5-10 mph.  This evening will be partly cloudy, with a  low temperature of 48 F.  The winds will be from the southwest at 5-10 mph, becoming northeast after midnight.

The NWS has issued a Hazardous Weather Outlook concerning a few thunderstorms in the northeastern part of the state this afternoon.  A back door cold front is expected to spill into the northern and eastern parts of the state this evening, and along this frontal boundary, strong storms are possible.

The SPC has issued a Marginal Risk for severe weather for the northeastern corner of the state today.  A few strong thunderstorms are possible, with gusty winds and large hail as the primary threat.  Tornado probability is low.

The visible satellite imagery shows no clouds over the state today.  This image has been excluded from today’s post.

The infrared satellite imagery shows no thick clouds over the state today.  This image has been excluded from today’s post.

The water vapor imagery shows dry air over the state today.

The 12Z sounding from Albuquerque shows a dry atmosphere this morning.  There was 0.19 inches of precipitable water present in the column this morning.  There was no Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) and no Convective Inhibition (CINH) present.  There was a large thermal inversion, and the 0-3 km average lapse rate was 5.0 C/km.

The hodograph shows that there was 7 kts of low-level shear (mostly due to directional changes) and 16 kts of deep-layer shear (mostly due to speed changes).

The surface observations (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) show mild temperatures, low humidity (based on the surface dewpoint depressions) and sunny skies over the state this morning.  Winds are light and variable, and no major frontal boundaries are present over the state today.

The surface pressure chart shows that there are no strong pressure systems or gradients over the state today.  The RAP shows that none are expected to develop over at least the next six hours.

Synoptically speaking, the 300 mb NAM chart (from Unisys) shows light zonal flow over the state this morning.

The 500 mb NAM chart shows no strong pockets of vorticity advection.  This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

The 700 mb NAM chart shows some rapidly-rising air in the central part of the state, followed by some rapidly-sinking air on the opposite side of the central mountain range.  This is often an indicator of strong winds.  Today, it is likely due to convection ahead of the cold front.

The 850 mb NAM chart shows no strong thermal advection over the state today.  This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

The Precipitation chart shows that precipitation is unlikely, statewide, today.  This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

Today is going to be a day for enjoying the outdoors.  There will be some clouds this evening ahead of the approaching back door cold front, though precipitation is unlikely in the Rio Grande River Valley.  The northeastern part of the state may see some strong thunderstorms this afternoon.

Thank you for reading my forecast.

The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The forecasted upper air soundings are from TwisterData.com.
The surface observation and upper level charts are from Unisys Weather.
The satellite data is from College of DuPage – SATRAD

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About highplainschasing

This blog is about my tales in storm chasing. My name is Seth Price and I am an instrumentation instructor at New Mexico Tech. My amateur radio call sign is N3MRA.
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