Yesterday was mostly sunny and warm. The breeze picked up in the afternoon, and clouds developed by the late evening.
It has been partly cloudy, cool and still this morning. There are high cirrus clouds in all directions, as shown in the photo from my commute in Albuquerque.
The National Weather Service (NWS) in Albuquerque forecasts (for Socorro) a sunny day, with a high temperature of 84 F. The winds will be from the south at 5-10 mph, increasing to 15-20 mph, gusting as high as 30 mph in the afternoon. This evening will be clear, with a low temperature of 46 F. Winds will be from the south at 15-20 mph, gusting as high as 30 mph, but then becoming northwest at 5-10 mph after midnight.
The NWS in Albuquerque forecasts (for Magdalena) a sunny day, with a high temperature of 77 F. The winds will be south at 5-10 mph, increasing to 15-20 mph in the afternoon. This evening will be mostly cloudy, with a low temperature of 46 F. This evening will be clear, with a low temperature of 42 F. Winds will be from the west at 15-20 mph, gusting to 30 mph, but then decreasing to 10-15 mph after midnight.
The NWS in Albuquerque forecasts (for Rio Rancho) a sunny day, with a high temperature of 82 F. The winds will be south at 5-10 mph, increasing to 10-15 mph in the afternoon. This evening will be mostly clear, with a low temperature of 47 F. The winds will be from the southeast at 15-20 mph, decreasing to 5-10 mph after midnight.
The NWS has issued a Hazardous Weather Outlook as well as a wide stripe of Red Flag Warnings through the center of the state today:
The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has issued a Marginal Risk for severe weather in the southeastern corner of the state today. The primary threats will be large hail and damaging winds. Storms will be elevated, most likely.
There is also a 2% Tornado Threat Ring that just barely crosses into the southeastern corner of the state.
The SPC has also issued an Elevated Fire Weather Risk for almost all of New Mexico, as well as a narrow strip of Critical Fire Risk in the center of the state.
The visible satellite imagery is unavailable at this time.
The infrared satellite imagery shows a few thick clouds near the central mountain chain and to the southwest.
The water vapor imagery shows a small moisture plume that extends through the southern half of the state.
The 12Z sounding from Albuquerque shows highly variable moisture throughout the atmosphere, but no sharp moisture peaks. There was 0.25 inches of precipitable water present in the column this morning. There was no Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) and no Convective Inhibition (CINH) present. There was a moderate thermal inversion, and the 0-3 km average lapse rate was 5.9 C/km.
The hodograph shows that there was 13 kts of low-level shear (mostly due to directional changes) and 41 kts of deep-layer shear (mostly due to speed changes).
The surface observations (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) show mild temperatures, moderate humidity (based on the surface dewpoint depressions) and sunny skies to the west and central parts of the state this morning. The southeastern part of the state has a few clouds. Winds are light and variable, and no major frontal boundaries are present over the state today.
The surface pressure chart shows that there are no strong pressure systems or gradients over the state today. The RAP shows that none are expected to develop over at least the next six hours.
The charts also show that there is some CAPE possible in the southeastern corner of the state. The CAPE is not as strong today as it was yesterday, but it is worth mentioning. The Supercell Parameter and bulk shear will remain low.
The Fosberg Index does not show a strong fire threat, but the Mid-Elevation Haines Index, shown below, shows the threat over the western 2/3 of the state this morning.
Synoptically speaking, the 300 mb NAM chart (from Unisys) shows light zonal flow over the state this morning.
The 500 mb NAM chart shows no strong pockets of vorticity advection. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.
The 700 mb NAM chart shows a few pockets of rapidly-rising air over the western part of the state by 00 Z.
The 850 mb NAM chart shows no strong thermal advection over the state today. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.
The Precipitation chart is unavailable at this time.
There may be a few storms along the very eastern edge of the state this afternoon. Winds will increase through the central part of the state and the risk for wild fire will increase. Otherwise, the weather today will be sunny and warm.
Thank you for reading my forecast.
The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The forecasted upper air soundings are from TwisterData.com.
The surface observation and upper level charts are from Unisys Weather.
The satellite data is from College of DuPage – SATRAD