New Mexico Weather: 4/13/17

Yesterday was a partly sunny, warm day.  A few drops of rain fell in Socorro, but not enough to wet the ground.  There were severe storms off and on all day in the southern part of the state.  There were a number of large hail reports, as shown below in the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) Storm Reports graphic:

It has been mostly clear, cool and still this morning.  There is some haze to the east, but clear skies to the west, here in Albuquerque:

The National Weather Service (NWS) in Albuquerque forecasts (for Socorro) a sunny day, with a high temperature of 81 F. The winds will be from the south at 5-10 mph, increasing to 15-20 mph in the afternoon.  This evening will be mostly clear, with a low temperature of 48 F.   Winds will be from the south at 15-20 mph, decreasing to 5-10 mph after midnight.

The NWS in Albuquerque forecasts (for Magdalena) a mostly sunny day, with a high temperature of 74 F. The winds will be southeast at 5-15  mph.  This evening will be mostly cloudy, with a low temperature of 46 F.  This evening will be mostly clear, with a low temperature of 45 F.   Winds will be from the southeast at 10-15 mph.

The NWS in Albuquerque forecasts (for Rio Rancho) a mostly sunny day, with a high temperature of 80 F. The winds will be east at 5-10 mph, becoming south in the afternoon.  This evening will be mostly clear, with a  low temperature of 49 F.  The winds will be from the south at 5-10 mph, becoming west after midnight.

The NWS has issued a Hazardous Weather Outlook, as storms are possible over much of the state today.  However, the primary threats will be Lincoln and Chavez Counties.

 

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has issued a Marginal Risk for severe weather in the southeastern corner of the state today.  The primary threats will be large hail and damaging winds.

The SPC has also issued an Elevated Fire Weather Risk for the western part of the state, as the air dries out and remains precipitation-free.

The visible satellite imagery shows some lingering clouds over the southeastern part of the state this morning.

The infrared satellite imagery shows no thick clouds over the state today.  This image has been excluded from today’s post.

The water vapor imagery shows dry air behind yesterday’s storms.  There is some moisture in the eastern third of the state this morning.

The 12Z sounding from Albuquerque shows a relatively damp boundary layer, with dry air aloft.   There was 0.31 inches of precipitable water present in the column this morning.  There was no Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) and no Convective Inhibition (CINH) present.  There was a small, but deep thermal inversion, and the 0-3 km average lapse rate was 5.4 C/km.

The hodograph shows that there was 12 kts of low-level shear (mostly due to directional changes) and 23 kts of deep-layer shear (due to a mix of speed and directional changes).

The surface observations (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) show mild temperatures, moderate humidity (based on the surface dewpoint depressions) and sunny skies to the west and central parts of the state this morning.  The southeastern part of the state has a few clouds.  Winds are light and variable, and no major frontal boundaries are present over the state today.

The surface pressure chart shows that there are no strong pressure systems or gradients over the state today.  The RAP shows that none are expected to develop over at least the next six hours.

 

The charts also show that there is may be a pocket of 2500 J/kg CAPE over southeastern New Mexico in the next six hours.  This CAPE is strong enough to support severe storms.. However, the bulk shear is lower today than it was yesterday, so storms will be short-lived, and rotating storms are less likely.

Synoptically speaking, the 300 mb NAM chart (from Unisys) shows light zonal flow over the state this morning.

The 500 mb NAM chart shows no strong pockets of vorticity advection.  This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

The 700 mb NAM chart shows a few pockets of rapidly-rising air over the western part  of the state by 00 Z.

The 850 mb NAM chart shows no strong thermal advection over the state today.  This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

The Precipitation chart shows that precipitation is becoming less likely throughout the day.  There may be a little on the very eastern edge of the state.  This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

There may be a few storms in the southeastern part of the state today, but the rest of the state should see pleasant conditions today, tonight, and over the next several days.

Thank you for reading my forecast.

The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The forecasted upper air soundings are from TwisterData.com.
The surface observation and upper level charts are from Unisys Weather.
The satellite data is from College of DuPage – SATRAD

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About highplainschasing

This blog is about my tales in storm chasing. My name is Seth Price and I am an instrumentation instructor at New Mexico Tech. My amateur radio call sign is N3MRA.
This entry was posted in Fire Weather, Local WX, Photography, Practicing Concepts, Predictions, Satellite Imagery, Severe Weather and tagged , , , , , , , , , , , . Bookmark the permalink.

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