Yesterday was a beautiful, sunny, warm day with calm winds. In the afternoon, the skies filled with high clouds.
It has been a clear, cool and still this morning. There are only a few high clouds in the sky here in Albuquerque:
The National Weather Service (NWS) in Albuquerque forecasts (for Socorro) a sunny day, with a high temperature of 82 F. The winds will be from the southeast at 5-10 mph. This evening will be partly cloudy, with a low temperature of 47 F. Winds will be from the south at 5-15 mph, becoming west after midnight.
The NWS in Albuquerque forecasts (for Magdalena) a sunny day, with a high temperature of 75 F. The winds will be from the southwest at 5-10 mph. This evening will be partly cloudy, with a low temperature of 44 F. The winds will be from the west at 10-15 mph.
The NWS in Albuquerque forecasts (for Rio Rancho) a mostly sunny day, with a high temperature of 79 F. The winds will be northeast at 5-10 mph, becoming southwest by the afternoon. This evening will be partly cloudy, with a low temperature of 48 F. The winds will be from the west at 5-15 mph.
The Storm Prediction Center shows that almost the entire state is under an Elevated Fire Risk today.
The visible satellite imagery is unavailable at this time.
The infrared satellite imagery shows that there are no thick clouds over the state today. This image has been excluded from today’s post.
The water vapor imagery shows mostly drier air over the state today, especially over the lower and middle Rio Grande River Valleys.
The 12Z sounding from Albuquerque shows that there was a little more moisture today as compared to yesterday. There was 0.30 inches of precipitable water present in the column this morning. There was no Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) and no Convective Inhibition (CINH) present. There was a small thermal inversion, and the 0-3 km average lapse rate was 5.1 C/km.
The hodograph shows that there was 22 kts of low-level shear (due to a mix of speed and directional changes) and 35 kts of deep-layer shear (due to a mix of speed and directional changes).
The surface observations (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) show cool temperatures, low humidity (based on the surface dewpoint depressions) and sunny skies dominate the map this morning. The winds are light and variable, and no major frontal boundaries are present over the state this morning.
The surface pressure chart shows that there are no major pressure systems or steep pressure gradients over the state this morning. The RAP shows that none are expected to develop over at least the next six hours.
Synoptically speaking, the 300 mb NAM chart (from Unisys) shows light, zonal flow as we enter a shallow ridge pattern by this afternoon.
The 500 mb NAM chart shows no strong vorticity advection over the state today. This image has been excluded from today’s post.
The 700 mb NAM chart shows a strip of rapidly-rising air over the center of the state today.
The 850 mb NAM chart shows no strong thermal advection over the state today. This image has been excluded from today’s post.
The Precipitation chart shows that there is virtually no chance of rain across the state today. This image has been excluded from today’s post.
Today will be another beautiful day. Enjoy the nice weather! Do notice, however, that with the dry weather, the fire risk is increasing each day. There will be an increased threat tomorrow as well.
Thank you for reading my forecast.
The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The forecasted upper air soundings are from TwisterData.com.
The surface observation and upper level charts are from Unisys Weather.
The satellite data is from College of DuPage – SATRAD