Long Range Forecasting: 4/4/17-4/11/17

It is time to look ahead at the long range forecast, as told by the GFS model.

The next few days will clear up and begin to warm.  However, another cold front will pass through the area on Saturday Night/Sunday Morning, dropping temperatures 10 C or so.

Today’s trough will continue to push east, leaving us in a ridge pattern for a few days.  Temperatures will increase slowly, skies will remain clear, and winds will be weaker for several days.  A broad trough will enter the picture this weekend, according to the 300 mb GFS charts, as shown below.  However, this trough is not as vigorous as the last few we’ve had, so precipitation will be limited.

The cold front shows up on the 850 mb GFS chart.  The Cold Air Advection (CAA) is marked by the winds blowing across the thermal gradient from cold to warm.

The Precipitation chart shows that our largest threat for rainy weather will be Sunday, and only really in the northwestern corner of the state.

New Mexico can certainly use a little precipitation, judging by the number of Red Flag Warnings and Fire Weather Watches we’ve seen over the last few weeks.  This rain should help my garden and trees as well, so I, for one, am welcoming the wet weather.

Thank you for reading my post.

GFS Model Data is from Unisys Weather


About highplainschasing

This blog is about my tales in storm chasing. My name is Seth Price and I am an instrumentation instructor at New Mexico Tech. My amateur radio call sign is N3MRA.
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