Yesterday was a beautiful day. The skies began to cloud up a bit in the evening, though no precipitation fell.
It has been a mostly clear, cool and windy this morning. I didn’t venture far outside, as I was getting sandblasted. Notice that the tree is blurry; it is swaying in the breeze.
The National Weather Service (NWS) in Albuquerque forecasts (for Socorro) a mostly sunny day, with a high temperature of 62 F. The winds will be from the northwest at 10-20 mph, increasing to 20-30 mph and gusting to 45 mph by the afternoon. This evening will be mostly clear, with a low temperature of 32 F. Winds will be from the northwest at 20-25 mph, gusting to 35 mph, but decreasing to 10-15 mph after midnight.
The NWS in Albuquerque forecasts (for Magdalena) a mostly sunny day, with a high temperature of 53 F. The winds will be from the northwest at 30-35 mph, gusting to 45 mph. This evening will be mostly clear, with a low temperature of 26 F. The winds will be from the northwest at 20-25 mph, gusting to 35 mph, but then decreasing to 10-15 mph by midnight.
The NWS in Albuquerque forecasts (for Rio Rancho) a mostly sunny day, with a high temperature of 55 F. The winds will be from the southwest at 15-25 mph, becoming northwest at 25-35 mph, and gusting as high as 50 mph, by the afternoon. This evening will be mostly clear, with a low temperature of 31 F. The winds will be from the northwest at 25-35 mph, gusting as high as 50 mph, but decreasing to 10-20 mph by midnight.
The NWS has issued a Hazardous Weather Outlook for most of their watch area, as well as some High Wind Advisories and Winter Storm Watches. The NWS Watches and Warnings Graphic is shown below:
The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has issued an Elevated Fire Risk for the southern half of the state, as well as a Critical Fire Risk for the southeastern corner.
The visible satellite imagery is unavailable at this time.
The infrared satellite imagery shows that there are quite a few thick clouds, particularly over the northern part of the state, as well as higher elevations this morning.
The water vapor imagery shows that a new center of circulation is located over northeastern New Mexico; another mid-latitude cyclone has formed and is moving northeast.
The 12Z sounding from Albuquerque shows a damp boundary layer today today, with nearly saturated conditions below 450 mb. There was 0.31 inches of precipitable water present in the column this morning. There was 31 J/kg of of Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) and -22 J/kg of Convective Inhibition (CINH) present. There was no thermal inversion near the surface, and the 0-3 km average lapse rate was 8.1 C/km.
The hodograph shows that there was 20 kts of low-level shear (due mostly to speed changes) and 53 kts of deep-layer shear (due to a mix of speed changes).
The surface observations (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) show cool temperatures, moderate humidity (based on the surface dewpoint depressions) and sunny skies dominate the map this morning. The winds are breezy, and the Doppler RADAR shows some precipitation in the eastern third of the state.
The surface pressure chart shows a strong low pressure system over the eastern part of the state today, and a moderate pressure gradient extending from it in all directions. The RAP shows that both the low pressure system and the pressure gradient will persist for at least the next six hours.
The Fosberg Index shows the Fire Weather threat today,
…as does the Middle Altitude Haines Index:
Synoptically speaking, the 300 mb NAM chart (from Unisys) shows northwesterly flow by this evening, as the trough passes through the state and into the southern Great Plains.
The 500 mb NAM chart shows some strong Positive Vorticity Advection (PVA) in northeastern New Mexico by 00 Z.
The 700 mb NAM at 00 Z shows some pockets of rapidly-rising air, though some of this is due to strong winds, rather than convection.
The 850 mb NAM chart shows some Cold Air Advection (CAA) pushing into the eastern part of the state behind the mid-latitude cyclone.
The Precipitation chart shows that there is a chance of heavy rain in the northeastern corner of the state.
Today will be unpleasantly windy. Blowing dust, debris and so on will make time spent outdoors uncomfortable. Be on the lookout for falling branches. Also, the temperature will be cooler today than yesterday. It’s a good day to stay indoors!
Thank you for reading my forecast.
The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The forecasted upper air soundings are from TwisterData.com.
The surface observation and upper level charts are from Unisys Weather.
The satellite data is from College of DuPage – SATRAD