Yesterday was a cloudy and sometimes rainy day in my travels from Fargo, ND, to Dallas, TX, to Albuquerque, NM.
It has been a mostly sunny, mild, and still this morning. Here is a photo from the Magdalena school, showing the clear skies.
The National Weather Service (NWS) in Albuquerque forecasts (for Socorro) a sunny day, with a high temperature of 71 F. The winds will be from the northwest at 10-15 mph, becoming southwest in the afternoon. This evening will be partly cloudy, with a low temperature of 43 F. Winds will be from the southwest at 15 mph, becoming west after midnight.
The NWS in Albuquerque forecasts (for Magdalena) a mostly sunny day, with a high temperature of 63 F. The winds will be from the northwest at 10-20 mph. This evening will be mostly cloudy, with a low temperature of 37 F. The winds will be from the west at 25 mph, gusting to 35 mph.
The NWS in Albuquerque forecasts (for Rio Rancho) a mostly sunny day, with a high temperature of 66 F. The winds will be from the west at 5-15 mph. This evening will be mostly cloudy, with a 30% chance of isolated showers, and a low temperature of 39 F. The winds will be from the west at 10-15 mph.
The NWS has issued a Hazardous Weather Outlook for most of their watch area, as well as some High Wind Advisories and Winter Storm Watches. The NWS Watches and Warnings Graphic is shown below:
The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has issued an Elevated Fire Risk for the southern tier of counties.
The visible satellite imagery is unavailable at this time.
The infrared satellite imagery shows that there are virtually no thick clouds over the state today. This image has been excluded from today’s post.
The water vapor imagery shows zonal flow over the state this morning. The moisture aloft is highly variable over the state, but no strong frontal boundaries are present.
The 12Z sounding from Albuquerque shows a damp atmosphere today, with nearly saturated conditions at 550 mb. There was 0.41 inches of precipitable water present in the column this morning. There was no of Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) and no of Convective Inhibition (CINH) present. There was a moderate thermal inversion near the surface, and the 0-3 km average lapse rate was 6.1 C/km.
The hodograph shows that there was 27 kts of low-level shear (due mostly to directional changes) and 71 kts of deep-layer shear (due to a mix of speed and directional changes).
The surface observations (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) show mild temperatures, moderate humidity (based on the surface dewpoint depressions) and sunny skies dominate the map this morning. The winds are light and variable, and no major frontal boundaries are present over the state so far this morning.
The surface pressure chart shows no strong pressure systems or gradients over the state so far today. The RAP shows that none are expected to develop over the next six hours.
Synoptically speaking, the 300 mb NAM chart (from Unisys) shows zonal flow over the state today, though another trough approaches from the west.
The 500 mb NAM chart shows some strong Positive Vorticity Advection (PVA) in northern New Mexico by 00 Z.
The 700 mb NAM at 00 Z shows some pockets of rapidly-rising air, though there is a matching pocket of sinking air on the opposite side of the mountains. This is more an indication of the strong winds than actual convection.
The 850 mb NAM chart shows some Cold Air Advection (CAA) moving through the state due to the weak cold front ahead of the trough.
The Precipitation chart shows that there is a small threat of precipitation in the northwestern corner of the state.
Today will be a pleasant day for most of the state. The higher elevations will see some cold temperatures and some snowfall this evening. The winds will be steady and perhaps a nuisance.
Thank you for reading my forecast.
The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The forecasted upper air soundings are from TwisterData.com.
The surface observation and upper level charts are from Unisys Weather.
The satellite data is from College of DuPage – SATRAD