North Dakota Weather: 4/1/17

Yesterday, I flew from Albuquerque, NM, to Denver, CO, to Fargo ND.  The weather was mostly cloudy along our route, but it ended up being a cool, mostly sunny day in Fargo.  However, the weather turned chilly and rainy by the evening, and I drove with the windshield wipers on the whole way to Grand Forks.

It is another dreary day here in Grand Forks, as seen from my hotel window this morning:

The National Weather Service (NWS) in Grand Forks forecasts (for Grand Forks) a foggy and mostly cloudy morning that will transition into a mostly sunny day, with a high temperature of 52 F. The winds will be calm, becoming southwest at 6 mph in the afternoon.  This evening will be partly cloudy, with a low temperature of 39 F.   Winds will be from the south-southeast at 7-11 mph.

The NWS in Grand Forks forecasts (for Fargo) a partly sunny day, with a high temperature of 56 F. The winds will be light and variable, becoming southwest, becoming 5-7 mph.  This evening will be mostly clear, with a low temperature of 38 F.  The winds will be from south at 6-11 mph.

The visible satellite imagery is unavailable at this time.

The infrared satellite imagery shows that there are a few thick clouds this morning in the the central part of the state.

The water vapor imagery shows that a band of dry air aloft is passing through the state, behind the leading edge of the trough.

The 12Z sounding from Bismarck, ND, shows a damp atmosphere below 700 mb.  There was 0.46 inches of precipitable water present in the column this morning.  There was no of Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) and no of Convective Inhibition (CINH) present.  There was a small thermal inversion near the surface, and the 0-3 km average lapse rate was 5.2 C/km.

The hodograph shows that there was 8 kts of low-level shear (due to a mix of speed to directional changes) and 16 kts of deep-layer shear (due to a mix of speed and directional changes).

The surface observations (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) show cool temperatures, high humidity (based on the surface dewpoint depressions) and cloudy skies dominate the map this morning.  The winds are light and variable, and no major frontal boundaries are present over the state so far this morning, though there is a weak center of circulation in the eastern part of the state, judging by the winds.

The surface pressure chart shows no major pressure systems or pressure gradients over the state today.  The RAP shows that none are expected to develop over the next six hours.

Synoptically speaking, the 300 mb NAM chart (from Unisys) nearly zonal flow over the state.

The 500 mb NAM chart shows no strong vorticity advection over the state today.  This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

The 700 mb NAM chart shows no rapidly-rising air over the state today.  This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

The 850 mb NAM chart shows some weak Warm Air Advection (WAA) moving into the state today. The thermal gradient and the winds are neither one very strong, but perhaps there will be a little warm air moving in today.  Even so, this image has been excluded from today’s post.

The Precipitation chart shows that there is virtually no chance of significant precipitation over the state today.  This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

Today is already clearing up.  I expect a cool (at least by New Mexico standards), but pleasant day today in Grand Forks.

Thank you for reading my forecast.

The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The forecasted upper air soundings are from TwisterData.com.
The surface observation and upper level charts are from Unisys Weather.
The satellite data is from College of DuPage – SATRAD

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About highplainschasing

This blog is about my tales in storm chasing. My name is Seth Price and I am an instrumentation instructor at New Mexico Tech. My amateur radio call sign is N3MRA.
This entry was posted in Fire Weather, Local WX, Photography, Practicing Concepts, Predictions, Radar Imagery, Satellite Imagery and tagged , , , , , , , , , . Bookmark the permalink.

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