New Mexico Weather: 3/30/17

Yesterday was mostly sunny by the afternoon.  It turned out to be a beautiful day after all.  Here’s a photo from Belen along my commute from Socorro to Rio Rancho:

There was also a Kelvin-Helmholtz Wave pattern of clouds right at sundown in the South Valley of Albuquerque:

This morning has been cool, partly sunny, and still.  There was patchy fog all along my commute to Socorro, but soon after I arrived in Socorro, the weather turned sunny.  Here is a nice spring photo on the New Mexico Tech campus, taken this morning:

The National Weather Service (NWS) in Albuquerque forecasts (for Socorro) a sunny day, with a high temperature of 76 F. The winds will be from the southwest at 10-15 mph.  This evening will be mostly clear, with a low temperature of 43 F.   Winds will be from the south at 10-15 mph.

The NWS in Albuquerque forecasts (for Magdalena) a mostly sunny day, with a high temperature of 68 F. The winds will be from the west at 15-20 mph, increasing to 20-25 mph in the afternoon.  This evening will be mostly clear, with a low temperature of 38 F.  The winds will be from the southwest at 15-20 mph, gusting as high as 30 mph.

The NWS in Albuquerque forecasts (for Rio Rancho) a mostly sunny day, with a high temperature of 72 F. The winds will be from the southwest at 10-15 mph.  This evening will be partly cloudy, with a low temperature of 43 F.  The winds will be from the southwest at 10-15 mph.

The NWS has issued a Red Flag Warning for the central part of the state.  There are also Hazardous Weather Outlooks concerning the fire weather that will occur tomorrow.  The NWS Watches and Warnings Graphic is shown below:

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has issued an Elevated Fire Risk for the southern half of the state, as well as two patches of Critical Fire Risk.

The visible satellite imagery shows a few clouds over the central mountain chain this morning:

The infrared satellite imagery shows that there are very few thick clouds this morning.

The water vapor imagery shows the next approaching trough over California.

The 12Z sounding from Albuquerque shows a much drier atmosphere just above the surface.  There was 0.20 inches of precipitable water present in the column this morning.  There was no of Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) and no of Convective Inhibition (CINH) present.  There was a tiny thermal inversion near the surface, and the 0-3 km average lapse rate was 4.1 C/km.

The hodograph shows that there was 22 kts of low-level shear (due mostly to directional changes) and 29 kts of deep-layer shear (due to a mix of speed and directional changes).

The surface observations (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) show mild temperatures, high humidity (based on the surface dewpoint depressions) and sunny skies dominate the map this morning.  The winds are light and variable, and no major frontal boundaries are present over the state so far this morning.

The surface pressure chart shows that there are no major pressure systems or gradients over the state thus far this morning.  The RAP shows that none are expected to develop in the next six hours.

The Fosberg Index shows some Fire Weather threat today, but the Middle Altitude Haines Index highlights the threat:

Synoptically speaking, the 300 mb NAM chart (from Unisys) shows zonal flow over the state today.  A new trough is digging south into California and that will affect us tomorrow and this weekend.

The 500 mb NAM chart shows no strong vorticity advection over the state today.  This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

The 700 mb NAM very little rapidly-rising air over the state today.  This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

The 850 mb NAM chart shows no strong thermal advection over the state today.  This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

The Precipitation chart shows that there is virtually no threat of precipitation today over New Mexico.  This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

Today will be a nicer day than yesterday, with warmer temperatures, clear skies and no precipitation.  However, this evening will turn breezy, and we will enter a Fire Weather Watch tomorrow.

Thank you for reading my forecast.

The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The forecasted upper air soundings are from TwisterData.com.
The surface observation and upper level charts are from Unisys Weather.
The satellite data is from College of DuPage – SATRAD

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About highplainschasing

This blog is about my tales in storm chasing. My name is Seth Price and I am an instrumentation instructor at New Mexico Tech. My amateur radio call sign is N3MRA.
This entry was posted in Fire Weather, Local WX, Photography, Practicing Concepts, Predictions, Radar Imagery, Satellite Imagery and tagged , , , , , , , , , . Bookmark the permalink.

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