Long Range Forecasting: 3/28/17-4/4/17

It is time to look ahead at the long range forecast, as told by the GFS model.

The next few days will be marked with clouds, rain and generally cooler weather than we’ve seen for several weeks.  This is not unusual; it will just feel that way, given our two weeks of record high temperatures.

This evening’s deep trough (shown on the 300 mb GFS chart) shows how badly the zonal flow pattern has been disrupted.  This trough will broaden, and about the time it begins to move east, another one will take its place.

There is no strong thermal advection in either direction (hot or cold) over the next week.  There are no strong fronts that are showing up on the 850 mb GFS charts.

The Precipitation chart shows that our largest threat for rainy weather will be tomorrow, though precipitation is possible throughout the entire week.

New Mexico can certainly use a little precipitation, judging by the number of Red Flag Warnings and Fire Weather Watches we’ve seen over the last few weeks.  This rain should help my garden and trees as well, so I, for one, am welcoming the wet weather.

Thank you for reading my post.

GFS Model Data is from Unisys Weather

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About highplainschasing

This blog is about my tales in storm chasing. My name is Seth Price and I am an instrumentation instructor at New Mexico Tech. My amateur radio call sign is N3MRA.
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