New Mexico Weather: 3/27/17

Yesterday was breezy and mild.  The day remained mostly sunny, with a few cumulus clouds.

This morning has been cool, sunny, and still.  There were no clouds along my commute from Rio Rancho to Socorro this morning.

The National Weather Service (NWS) in Albuquerque forecasts (for Socorro) a sunny day with a high temperature of 74 F. The winds will be from the northwest at 5-10 mph, becoming south at 10-15 mph in the afternoon.  This evening will be mostly cloudy, with a low temperature of 43 F.   Winds will be from the west at 5-15 mph.

The NWS in Albuquerque forecasts (for Magdalena) a mostly sunny day, with a high temperature of 66 F. The winds will be from the west at 5-15 mph, becoming south in the afternoon.  This evening will be mostly cloudy, with a 20% chance of showers after midnight and a low temperature of 37 F.  The winds will be from the west at 10-15 mph.

The NWS in Albuquerque forecasts (for Rio Rancho) a mostly sunny day, with a high temperature of 69 F. The winds will be from the south at 5-10 mph.  This evening will be mostly cloudy, with a 20% chance of showers after midnight, and a low temperature of 44 F.  The winds will be from the west at 5-10 mph.

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) shows the Fire Weather risk.  The southern half of the state is under an Elevated Risk.

The visible satellite imagery is unavailable at this time.

The infrared satellite imagery shows no thick clouds over the state at this time.  This image has been excluded from today’s post.

The water vapor imagery shows nearly uniform moisture over the state so far this morning.

The 12Z sounding from Albuquerque shows a relatively damp, well-mixed atmosphere this morning.  There was 0.33 inches of precipitable water present in the column this morning.  There was no Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) and no Convective Inhibition (CINH) present.  There was only a tiny thermal inversion near the surface, and the 0-3 km average lapse rate was 4.4 C/km.

The hodograph shows that there was 16 kts of low-level shear (due mostly to directional changes) and 39 kts of deep-layer shear (due mostly to speed changes).

The surface observations (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) show cool temperatures, low humidity (based on the surface dewpoint depressions), clear skies, and no major frontal boundaries present over the state so far this morning.

The surface pressure chart shows no major pressure systems or gradients over the state so far this morning.  The RAP shows that no major pressure systems or gradients are expected to develop over the next six hours.

The Fosberg Index does not show a strong fire threat today, but the Mid Elevation Haines Index shows some threat in the southeastern corner of the state:

Synoptically speaking, the 300 mb NAM chart (from Unisys) shows southwesterly flow as the next trough enters the state.  This next trough may bring some rainy weather.

The 500 mb NAM chart shows no significant vorticity advection over the state today.  This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

The 700 mb NAM chart shows no rapidly-rising air over the state today.  This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

The 850 mb NAM chart shows no strong thermal advection over the state today.  This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

The Precipitation chart shows there is little chance of rain by 00 Z this evening.  This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

Today will be another typical March day for New Mexico.  Sunny, breezy and mild.  However, a trough is approaching, and with it, there will be an increased chance of precipitation.

Thank you for reading my forecast.

The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The forecasted upper air soundings are from TwisterData.com.
The surface observation and upper level charts are from Unisys Weather.
The satellite data is from College of DuPage – SATRAD

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About highplainschasing

This blog is about my tales in storm chasing. My name is Seth Price and I am an instrumentation instructor at New Mexico Tech. My amateur radio call sign is N3MRA.
This entry was posted in Fire Weather, Local WX, Photography, Practicing Concepts, Predictions, Satellite Imagery and tagged , , , , , , , , , . Bookmark the permalink.

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