Yesterday was breezy and mild. It clouded up soon after I posted to this blog, and remained mostly cloudy throughout the day. The breeze increased in the evening.
This morning has been cool, sunny, and still. There are some L1 cumulus clouds over Rio Rancho this morning.
The National Weather Service (NWS) in Albuquerque forecasts (for Socorro) a sunny day with a high temperature of 74 F. The winds will be from the northwest at 15-20 mph. This evening will be mostly clear, with a low temperature of 41 F. Winds will be from the northwest at 10-15 mph, decreasing to 5-10 mph after midnight.
The NWS in Albuquerque forecasts (for Magdalena) a sunny day, with a high temperature of 64 F. The winds will be from the northwest at 15-20 mph. This evening will be mostly clear, with a low temperature of 35 F. The winds will be from the west at 15-20 mph, decreasing to 10-15 mph after midnight.
The NWS in Albuquerque forecasts (for Rio Rancho) a mostly sunny day, with a high temperature of 69 F. The winds will be from the west at 10-20 mph. This evening will be mostly clear, with a low temperature of 40 F. The winds will be from the northwest at 15-20 mph, decreasing to 5-10 mph after midnight.
The NWS has issued some Red Flag Warnings for the southeastern corner of the state concerning the high winds today. There are Hazardous Weather Outlooks for the rest of the state, concerning weather early this week. The NWS Watches and Warnings graphic is shown below:
The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) shows the Fire Weather risk. Most of the state is under at least Elevated Risk, with a Critical Risk in the southwestern corner of the state.
The visible satellite imagery shows a few clouds near the northern border, as well as in the southeastern corner of the state this morning.
The infrared satellite imagery shows that the clouds in the southeast are thicker than the ones in the north.
The water vapor imagery shows that another mid-latitude cyclone has spawned off our northeastern corner and will travel east today, causing a severe thunderstorm threat in Oklahoma later today. More about the severe threat in my next post.
The 12Z sounding from Albuquerque shows a relatively damp atmosphere below 550 mb. There was 0.30 inches of precipitable water present in the column this morning. There was no of Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) and no Convective Inhibition (CINH) present. There was no thermal inversion near the surface, and the 0-3 km average lapse rate was 6.5 C/km.
The hodograph shows that there was 30 kts of low-level shear (due mostly to directional changes) and 72 kts of deep-layer shear (due mostly to speed changes).
The surface observations (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) show cool temperatures, moderate humidity (based on the surface dewpoint depressions), clear skies, and no major frontal boundaries present over the state so far this morning.
The surface pressure chart shows low pressure over the northeastern corner of the state. This is the next mid-latitude cyclone to impact the Great Plains. There is a moderate pressure gradient as this system moves east. The RAP shows that this system will move east, but the pressure gradient and moderate winds will remain for at least the next six hours.
The Fosberg Index does not show a strong fire threat today, but the Mid Elevation Haines Index does:
Synoptically speaking, the 300 mb NAM chart (from Unisys) shows northwesterly flow as a shortwave trough moves east, causing problems in the Great Plains.
The 500 mb NAM chart shows no significant vorticity advection over the state today. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.
The 700 mb NAM chart shows no rapidly-rising air over the state today. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.
The 850 mb NAM chart shows no strong thermal advection over the state today. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.
The Precipitation chart shows there is little chance of rain by 00 Z this evening. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.
Today will be another typical March day for New Mexico. Sunny, breezy and mild.
The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The forecasted upper air soundings are from TwisterData.com.
The surface observation and upper level charts are from Unisys Weather.
The satellite data is from College of DuPage – SATRAD