Yesterday was warm, sunny and still. It was an absolutely beautiful day. I spent most of it inside, unfortunately.
This morning has been mild, still and mostly cloudy. There is a blanket of clouds over Rio Rancho this morning:
The National Weather Service (NWS) in Albuquerque forecasts (for Socorro) a mostly sunny day, with a high temperature of 78 F. The winds will be from the northwest at 5-10 mph, becoming northeast in the afternoon. This evening will be partly cloudy, with a low temperature of 40 F. The winds will be from the northeast at 10-20 mph.
The NWS in Albuquerque forecasts (for Magdalena) a mostly sunny day, with a high temperature of 70 F. The winds will be from the west at 5-10 mph, becoming north in the afternoon. This evening will be partly cloudy, with a low temperature of 35 F. The winds will be from the east at 10-15 mph, becoming southeast at 5-10 mph after midnight.
The NWS in Albuquerque forecasts (for Rio Rancho) a mostly sunny day, with a high temperature of 74 F. The winds will be from the northwest at 5-10 mph. This evening will be partly cloudy, with a low temperature of 38 F. The winds will be from the east at 10-20 mph.
The NWS in Albuquerque has issued a Hazardous Weather Outlook concerning the approaching back door cold front. Winds will be gusty in the eastern plains, and isolated thunderstorms are possible along this boundary, particularly from Portales to Roswell.
The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) also picked up on this threat, issuing a Marginal Risk for southeastern New Mexico. The threat has less than a 2% chance of tornadoes.
The visible satellite imagery shows cloud cover over the most of the state this morning.
The infrared satellite imagery shows that some of these clouds are quite thick, with cool tops.
The water vapor imagery shows deep moisture over the central part of the state so far this morning.
The 12Z sounding from Albuquerque shows a dry atmosphere, even with the heavy cloud cover. There was 0.18 inches of precipitable water present in the column this morning. There was no of Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) and no Convective Inhibition (CINH) present. There was a large thermal inversion near the surface, and the 0-3 km average lapse rate was 4.5 C/km.
The hodograph shows that there was 14 kts of low-level shear (mostly due to directional changes) and 33 kts of deep-layer shear (mostly due to speed changes) this morning.
The surface observations (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) show mild temperatures, low humidity (based on the surface dewpoint depressions), light winds, and clear skies over the state this morning. There is the edge of a cold front sticking into the northeastern corner of the state, and this will continue to trek southwest.
The surface pressure chart shows that strong, high pressure is creeping through the Great Plains and that there is a moderate pressure gradient in the northeastern corner of the state. This is associated with a back door cold front that is moving our way. The RAP shows that the pressure gradient will increase over the next six hours, leading to gusty winds in the eastern plains.
Synoptically speaking, the 300 mb NAM chart (from Unisys) shows almost no flow aloft over the state today.
The 500 mb NAM chart shows no significant thermal advection over the state today. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.
The 700 mb NAM chart shows a large pocket of rapidly-rising air over central New Mexico today.
The 850 mb NAM chart shows some Cold Air Advection (CAA) in the form of a back door cold front approaching from the northeast. Notice how the winds blow directly across the thermal gradient from cold to warm.
The Precipitation chart shows there is very little chance of precipitation over the state today. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.
Today is shaping up to be pleasant day, in terms of temperature, though it may become breezy this afternoon and evening. Also, there is some cloud cover. While precipitation isn’t expected, a few drops may fall here and there. The clouds will also keep the overnight temperatures warmer than expected, provided the clouds linger through the day.
Thank you for reading my forecast.
The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The forecasted upper air soundings are from TwisterData.com.
The surface observation and upper level charts are from Unisys Weather.
The satellite data is from College of DuPage – SATRAD