Yesterday was warm, sunny and still. It was an absolutely beautiful day, and I did get to spend some time outside (finally). I went for a run, worked in the garden, and then an evening walk.
This morning has been mild, still and mostly sunny. There are clear skies this morning over Rio Rancho:
The National Weather Service (NWS) in Albuquerque forecasts (for Socorro) a sunny day, with a high temperature of 80 F. The winds will be from the northwest at 5-10 mph, becoming south in the afternoon. This evening will be mostly clear, with a low temperature of 44 F. The winds will be from the south at 5-10 mph, becoming north after midnight.
The visible satellite imagery shows that all of the clouds I can see from my window are too small to show up on the satellite imagery. This image has been excluded from today’s post.
The infrared satellite imagery shows no thick clouds over the state this morning. This image has been excluded from today’s post.
The water vapor imagery shows a broad band of dry air passing through the state this morning.
The 12Z sounding from Albuquerque shows a dry atmosphere. There was 0.13 inches of precipitable water present in the column this morning. There was no of Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) and no Convective Inhibition (CINH) present. There was a large thermal inversion near the surface, and the 0-3 km average lapse rate was 4.1 C/km.
The hodograph shows that there was 7 kts of low-level shear (mostly due to directional changes) and 2 kts of deep-layer shear (mostly due to speed changes) this morning.
The surface observations (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) show mild temperatures, low humidity (based on the surface dewpoint depressions), light winds, and clear skies over the state this morning. There is the edge of a cold front sticking into the northeastern corner of the state, and this will push southeast over the next day or so.
The surface pressure chart shows that strong, high pressure is creeping through the Great Plains and that there is a moderate pressure gradient in the northeastern corner of the state. This is associated with a back door cold front that is moving our way. The RAP shows that diurnal heating will temporarily reduce the gradient over the next six hours.
Synoptically speaking, the 300 mb NAM chart (from Unisys) shows almost no flow aloft over the state today.
The 500 mb NAM chart shows no significant thermal advection over the state today. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.
The 700 mb NAM chart shows no rapidly-rising air over the state today. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.
The 850 mb NAM chart shows no significant thermal advection over the state today. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.
The Precipitation chart shows there is very little chance of precipitation over the state today. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.
Today is shaping up to be another pleasant day. I will spend most of it indoors today, unfortunately, as a trip to the MVD is on my list…
Thank you for reading my forecast.
The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The forecasted upper air soundings are from TwisterData.com.
The surface observation and upper level charts are from Unisys Weather.
The satellite data is from College of DuPage – SATRAD