Happy Birthday, Mom!!!
Yesterday was mild, mostly sunny and had only light winds. I did run through a few rain drops (like ten raindrops) on my commute from Socorro to Rio Rancho. This evening became breezy here in Rio Rancho.
This morning has been mild, windy and clear. There were a few ragged lenticular clouds over the Sandias this morning:
The National Weather Service (NWS) in Albuquerque forecasts (for Socorro) a windy day, with a high temperature of 70 F. The winds will be from the south at 15-20 mph, becoming west at 25-35 mph and gusting to 45 mph by the afternoon. This evening will be clear, with a low temperature of 33 F. The winds will be from the north at 5-15 mph. The NWS has issued a Hazardous Weather Outlook, a Red Flag Warning and a Wind Advisory today due to the windy conditions. The NWS Watches and Warnings Graphic is shown below:
The visible satellite imagery is unavailable at this time.
The infrared satellite imagery shows no thick clouds over the state this morning. This image has been excluded from today’s post.
The water vapor imagery shows that we are in a dry stripe of air behind the large frontal boundary.
The 12Z sounding from Albuquerque shows incredibly dry air above 650 mb. Overall, there was 0.28 inches of precipitable water present in the column. There was no of Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) and no Convective Inhibition (CINH) present. There was a tiny thermal inversion near the surface, and the 0-3 km average lapse rate was 6.2 C/km.
The hodograph shows that there was 42 kts of low-level shear (mostly due to directional changes) and 86 kts of deep-layer shear (mostly due to speed changes) this morning.
The surface observations (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) show cool temperatures, low humidity (based on the surface dewpoint depressions), breezy winds, and clear skies over the state this morning. There are no major frontal boundaries present over the state at this time.
The surface pressure chart shows that a strong, 990 mb lee-side low formed east of the Rocky Mountains. This low has generated a strong pressure gradient through most of New Mexico this morning. The RAP shows that the low pressure system will linger in place, and that the pressure gradient will tighten over the next six hours.
Synoptically speaking, the 300 mb NAM chart (from Unisys) shows moderate zonal flow as the trough passes to our north.
The 500 mb NAM chart shows no significant thermal advection over the state today. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.
The 700 mb NAM chart shows no rapidly-rising air over the state today. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.
The 850 mb NAM chart shows no significant thermal advection over the state today. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.
The Precipitation chart shows there is very little chance of precipitation over the state today. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.
Today is going to be windy, no matter where you go in the state. Expect an elevated wildfire threat as well as lots of blowing dust. The steep pressure gradient will remain with us all day.
Thank you for reading my forecast.
The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The forecasted upper air soundings are from TwisterData.com.
The surface observation and upper level charts are from Unisys Weather.
The satellite data is from College of DuPage – SATRAD