**This post is incredibly late, as it is nearly sundown. I had an allergic reaction to some medicine I was taking, and have spent the day in bed.**
Yesterday was partly cloudy, cool and had a slight breeze. There was some Kelvin-Helmholtz waves affecting the high clouds, as shown in the photo below:
This morning has been cool and cloudy. Here is a photo from my back door this afternoon:
The National Weather Service (NWS) in Albuquerque forecasts (for Rio Rancho) a partly sunny day, with a 20% chance of isolated showers and a high temperature of 48 F. The winds will be from the west at 15 mph. This evening will be mostly cloudy, with a low temperature of 31 F. The winds will be from the west at 5-10 mph becoming south after midnight. The NWS has issued a Hazardous Weather Outlook for rain showers and gusty outflow winds this evening. They have also issued a number of products for other parts of the state, as shown in the Watches and Warnings graphic below:
The visible satellite imagery shows scattered clouds over much of the state this morning.
The infrared satellite imagery shows that all of the clouds are relatively thin, with warm, low tops.
The water vapor imagery shows deeper moisture in the southern part of the state.
The 12Z sounding from Albuquerque shows a nearly-saturated layer from 650 mb to 450 mb. Overall, there was 0.24 inches of precipitable water present in the column. There was no of Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) and no Convective Inhibition (CINH) present. There was no thermal inversion near the surface, and the 0-3 km average lapse rate was 6.5 C/km.
The hodograph shows that there was 21 kts of low-level shear mostly due to speed changes) and 100 kts of deep-layer shear (mostly due to speed changes) this morning.
The surface observations (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) show cool temperatures, low humidity (based on the surface dewpoint depressions), still winds, and partly cloudy skies over most of the state. There are no major frontal boundaries present over the state at this time.
The surface pressure chart shows that we are under slightly lower pressure, but that there are no strong pressure gradients over the state this morning. The RAP shows that none are expected to develop over the next six hours.
Synoptically speaking, the 300 mb NAM chart (from Unisys) shows light, nearly-zonal flow over the state through this evening.
The 500 mb NAM chart shows no strong vorticity advection over the state today. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.
The 700 mb NAM chart shows no rapidly-rising air over the state today. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.
The 850 mb NAM chart shows no significant thermal advection over the state today. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.
The Precipitation chart shows that some light precipitation is possible, particularly in the northwestern corner of the state.
Today is going to remain cool, and we may see some precipitation over the next few days. I underestimated the moisture earlier this week. Yesterday, it looked like there was potential for snow, and today it looks more like rain, though it is right at the border. Time will tell!
Thank you for reading my forecast.
The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The forecasted upper air soundings are from TwisterData.com.
The surface observation and upper level charts are from Unisys Weather.
The satellite data is from College of DuPage – SATRAD