Yesterday was sunny, warm and windy. The bus driver described driving the bus between Belen and Socorro as, “a workout.” Also, later in the day, I was commuting from Magdalena to Socorro, and US-60 was blocked by a modular home that blew off a trailer.
This morning has been cool, breezy and clear. Here is a photo from Workman on the New Mexico Tech campus:
The National Weather Service (NWS) in Albuquerque forecasts (for Socorro) a sunny day, with a high temperature of 55 F. The winds will be from the northwest at 15-20 mph, and gusting as high as 30 mph by the afternoon. This evening will be mostly clear, with a low temperature of 25 F. The winds will be from the northwest at 5-15 mph. The NWS has issued a Hazardous Weather Outlook and Red Flag Warnings, concerning gusty winds and potential fire weather. Here is the Watches and Warnings Graphic:
The visible satellite imagery is unavailable at this time.
The infrared satellite imagery shows no clouds over the state today. This image has been excluded from today’s post.
The water vapor imagery shows that the line of dry air is continuing east, and more humid air has back-filled into New Mexico from the west and northwest.
The 12Z sounding from Albuquerque shows a dry atmosphere again today, with a layer of moisture from 700 mb – 600 mb. Overall, there was 0.17 inches of precipitable water present in the column. There was no of Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) and no Convective Inhibition (CINH) present. There was no thermal inversion near the surface, and the 0-3 km average lapse rate was 6.9 C/km.
The hodograph shows that there was 18 kts of low-level shear mostly due to speed changes) and 116 kts of deep-layer shear (mostly due to speed changes) this morning.
The surface observations (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) show cool temperatures, low humidity (based on the surface dewpoint depressions), moderate winds, and clear skies over most of the state. There are no major frontal boundaries present over the state at this time.
The surface pressure chart shows no strong pressure gradient this morning. There are also no strong pressure gradients, yet we have breezy conditions.
The RAP shows that the pressure gradient will increase over the next six hours leading to strong winds. The pressure gradient doesn’t look steep enough to support the strong winds, so there must be other factors.
Synoptically speaking, the 300 mb NAM chart (from Unisys) shows nearly-zonal flow over the state by this evening, as a broad trough passes to our north.
The 500 mb NAM chart shows no strong vorticity advection over the state today. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.
The 700 mb NAM chart shows no rapidly-rising air over the state today. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.
The 850 mb NAM chart shows no strong thermal advection over the state today. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.
The Precipitation chart shows that little to no precipitation is expected today. This chart has been excluded fro today’s post.
Today is going to be a breezy, dusty mess, with the potential for wildfires throughout the Rio Grande River Valley. It will remain colder than yesterday, as a small cold front passed through from the west.
Thank you for reading my forecast.
The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The forecasted upper air soundings are from TwisterData.com.
The surface observation and upper level charts are from Unisys Weather.
The satellite data is from College of DuPage – SATRAD