Yesterday was sunny, warm and still. Overall, it was a beautiful day. In the afternoon, I sat outside and did some reading.
This morning has been cool, still and clear. Here is the scene from Workman Hall on the New Mexico Tech campus in Socorro:
The National Weather Service (NWS) in Albuquerque forecasts (for Socorro) a mostly sunny day, with a high temperature of 76 F. The winds will be from the northwest at 5-10 mph, becoming southwest at 15-20 mph by the afternoon. This evening will be partly cloudy, with a low temperature of 44 F. The winds will be from the southwest at 10-15 mph. The NWS has issued a Hazardous Weather Outlook concerning gusty winds and potential fire weather later this week. Here is the Watches and Warnings Graphic:
The visible satellite imagery is unavailable at this time.
The infrared satellite imagery shows a few light clouds over the northeastern corner of the state this morning.
The water vapor imagery shows a plume of moisture moving in from the southwest, just crossing the northwestern corner of the state this morning.
The 12Z sounding from Albuquerque shows that the is moisture well-mixed in the column, with low to moderate dewpoint depressions throughout. Overall, there was 0.50 inches of precipitable water present in the column. There was no of Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) and no Convective Inhibition (CINH) present. There was a small thermal inversion near the surface, and the 0-3 km average lapse rate was 5.4 C/km.
The hodograph shows that there was 21 kts of low-level shear mostly due to directional changes) and 90 kts of deep-layer shear (mostly due to speed changes) this morning.
The surface observations (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) show cool temperatures, moderate humidity (based on the surface dewpoint depressions), light winds, and clear skies over most of the state. There are no major frontal boundaries present over the state at this time.
The surface pressure chart shows no strong pressure systems or gradients over the state this morning. The RAP shows that none are expected to develop over the next six hours.
Synoptically speaking, the 300 mb NAM chart (from Unisys) shows nearly-zonal flow over the state by this evening, though a new, smaller trough digs south into northern Nevada.
The 500 mb NAM chart shows no strong vorticity advection over the state today. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.
The 700 mb NAM chart shows a high-wind pattern, with rapidly-rising air on the west side of the mountains, and rapidly-sinking air on the east side.
The 850 mb NAM chart shows no strong thermal advection over the state today. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.
The Precipitation chart shows that little to no precipitation is expected today. There is a chance for a trace amount in the north central mountains by 00Z.
The weather was pleasant yesterday, and it will be even warmer today. In fact, there will likely be high temperature records broken today. However, the wind will increase through the afternoon, making it dusty.
Thank you for reading my forecast.
The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The forecasted upper air soundings are from TwisterData.com.
The surface observation and upper level charts are from Unisys Weather.
The satellite data is from College of DuPage – SATRAD