Yesterday was mild, breezy and mostly cloudy. We went for a bike ride, but we headed directly against the wind, which was difficult and cold. We only went 8 miles instead of the 18 we typically ride.
This morning has been cool, breezy and mostly cloudy. It has been raining off and on this morning. Here is a photo from my back door:
In Rio Rancho, my backyard weather station says the temperature is 44 F, the relative humidity is 82% (dewpoint 38 F), the relative pressure is 1012.2 mb and steady, and the winds are 7 mph from the north-northeast. We have received 0.05 inches of rain so far this morning.
The National Weather Service (NWS) in Albuquerque forecasts (for Rio Rancho) a mostly cloudy day with a 50% chance of scattered showers and a high temperature of 54 F. The winds will be from the west at 10 mph. This evening will be mostly cloudy, with a 40% chance of scattered showers and a low temperature of 35 F. The winds will be from the southwest at 10-15 mph. The NWS has issued a Hazardous Weather Outlook concerning rain and mountain snow for the next few days. They have also issued a Winter Weather Advisory for the southwestern part of the state, as shown in the graphic below:
The visible satellite imagery shows scattered clouds over most of the state this morning.
The infrared satellite imagery shows that the thickest clouds are over the eastern half of the state, but moderately thick clouds persist over the western half as well.
The water vapor imagery shows that the deepest moisture has moved east, but there is still ample moisture over the entire state this morning.
The 12Z sounding from Albuquerque shows a nearly-saturated atmosphere below 500 mb. Overall, there was 0.49 inches of precipitable water present in the column. There was no of Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) and no Convective Inhibition (CINH) present. There was no thermal inversion near the surface, and the 0-3 km average lapse rate was 5.9 C/km.
The hodograph shows that there was 18 kts of low-level shear mostly due to speed changes) and 49 kts of deep-layer shear (mostly due to speed changes) this morning.
The surface observations (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) show mild temperatures, moderate humidity (based on the surface dewpoint depressions), light winds, and partly cloudy skies over most of the state. There are no major frontal boundaries present over the state at this time.
The surface pressure chart shows no strong pressure gradients or systems over the state so far this morning. The RAP shows that a lee-side low pressure system will develop in northeastern Colorado, and that will generate a moderate pressure gradient over the northeastern part of New Mexico over the next six hours.
Synoptically speaking, the 300 mb NAM chart (from Unisys) shows a perfectly straight, narrow trough pushing through New Mexico today.
The 500 mb NAM chart shows some Negative Vorticity Advection (NVA) over the central part of the state this evening, as a vorticity maxima moves northeast.
The 700 mb NAM chart shows no rapidly-rising air over the state today. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.
The 850 mb NAM chart shows some weak Cold Air Advection (CAA) slipping in behind the trough. The thermal gradient is not steep, and the winds are not strong, so it is only slight CAA.
The Precipitation chart shows that most of the state will continue to see precipitation through the evening.
Today is also a day of transition. The trough will move east, and the NVA behind the vorticity maxima may help to clear the skies by tomorrow. However, we will continue to see off-and-on-again rain all day today.
Thank you for reading my forecast.
The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The forecasted upper air soundings are from TwisterData.com.
The surface observation and upper level charts are from Unisys Weather.
The satellite data is from College of DuPage – SATRAD