New Mexico Weather: 2/15/17

Yesterday was warmer than it has been for several days.  The skies began to clear and the wind remained still.  The ground was still quite wet, and the humidity was high. I did take a few neat photos on my way to Magdalena, and this was the best of them:

This morning, the weather along my commute from Rio Rancho to Socorro has been cold, still and mostly-clear.  Here is a photo from the Alvarado Train Station in downtown Albuquerque this morning:

In Rio Rancho, my backyard weather station says the temperature is 28 F, the relative humidity is 77% (dewpoint 21 F), the relative pressure is 1025.7 mb and steady, and the winds are 1 mph from the southwest.

The National Weather Service (NWS) in Albuquerque forecasts (for Socorro) a sunny day with a high temperature of 54 F. The winds will be from the north at 5 mph.  This evening will be mostly clear, with a low temperature of 31 F.  The winds will be from the northwest at 5 mph.

The visible satellite imagery is unavailable at this time.

The infrared satellite imagery shows very few clouds over the state this morning.  This image has been excluded from today’s post.

The water vapor imagery shows that there is dry air over most of the state.

The 12Z sounding from Albuquerque shows a nearly-saturated layer near 700 mb.  Overall, there was 0.28 inches of precipitable water present in the column.  There was no of Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) and no Convective Inhibition (CINH) present.  There was no thermal inversion near the surface, and the 0-3 km average lapse rate was 4.4 C/km.

The hodograph shows that there was 4 kts of low-level shear (a mix of directional and speed changes) and 25 kts of deep-layer shear (a mix of directional and speed changes) this morning.

The surface observations (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) show cold temperatures, high humidity (based on the surface dewpoint depressions), light winds, and clear skies over most of the state.

The surface pressure chart shows a weak high pressure system over the center of the state, but no strong pressure gradients this morning.  The RAP shows that no strong gradients are expected to develop, and the high pressure will persist over at least the next six hours.

Synoptically speaking, the 300 mb NAM chart (from Unisys) shows weak, variable flow over the state today.

The 500 mb NAM chart shows no strong vorticity advection over the state today.  This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

The 700 mb NAM chart shows some no rapidly-rising air over the state today.  This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

The 850 mb NAM chart shows no significant thermal advection over the state today.  This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

The Precipitation chart shows that precipitation is unlikely today.  This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

We have entered into a warming trend.  The weather will be mild, still and precipitation-free for several days.

Thank you for reading my forecast.

The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The forecasted upper air soundings are from TwisterData.com.
The surface observation and upper level charts are from Unisys Weather.
The satellite data is from College of DuPage – SATRAD

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About highplainschasing

This blog is about my tales in storm chasing. My name is Seth Price and I am an instrumentation instructor at New Mexico Tech. My amateur radio call sign is N3MRA.
This entry was posted in Local WX, Photography, Practicing Concepts, Predictions, Satellite Imagery and tagged , , , , , , , , , , . Bookmark the permalink.

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