Yesterday was a pleasant day. It was mild, sunny, breezy and precipitation-free all day.
Currently, it is clear, still and cool in Rio Rancho. The backyard weather station says the temperature is 47.3 F, the relative humidity is 33%, the relative pressure is 30.15 in Hg and rising, and the winds are 4.5 mph from the north. Here is a photo from my backyard, showing a few high cirrus clouds (H1) on the horizon:
The National Weather Service (NWS) in Albuquerque forecasts (for Socorro) a sunny day, with a high temperature of 60 F. The winds will be calm, becoming southwest at 5 mph in the afternoon. This evening will become increasingly cloudy, and a low temperature of 34 F. The winds will be from the southwest at 5 mph. The NWS has issued a Hazardous Weather Outlook for strong and gusty winds and critical fire weather tomorrow.
The visible satellite imagery shows that most of the clouds are east of the central mountain chain, stemming from the tops and blowing east.
The enhanced infrared satellite imagery shows that the clouds from the mountain tops are not very thick, and have low, warm tops.
The water vapor imagery shows zonal flow of moisture, nationwide. This morning is the opposite of yesterday, with the moisture on the leeward side of the mountains. My guess is that the valley breeze was strong enough to push the moisture near the top of the mountains, and now the upper level winds are streaming it over to the other side.
The 12Z sounding from Albuquerque shows a dry atmosphere again this morning, with high dewpoint depressions throughout. Overall, there was 0.16 inches of precipitable water present in the column. There was no Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) and no Convective Inhibition (CINH) present. There was a large thermal inversion near the surface, and the 0-3 km average lapse rate was 3.3 C/km.
The hodograph shows that there was 10 kts of low-level shear (due mostly to directional changes) and 51 kts of deep-layer shear (due mostly to speed changes) this morning.
The surface observations (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) show cool temperatures, low humidity (based on the surface dewpoint depressions), light winds, and clear skies over most of the state. There are no major frontal boundaries over the state so far this morning.
The surface pressure chart shows high pressure over the Four Corners area and a moderate pressure gradient through the eastern part of the state. The RAP shows that the pressure gradient will decrease slightly as the pressure drops due to diurnal heating over the next six hours.
Synoptically speaking, the 300 mb NAM chart (from Unisys) shows light zonal flow aloft.
The 500 mb NAM chart shows some Positive Vorticity Advection (PVA) over the southern part of the state as a small vorticity maxima works east-northeast. With limited moisture, it is likely inconsequential.
The 700 mb NAM chart shows no rapidly-rising air over the state today. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.
The 850 mb NAM chart shows no strong thermal advection over the state today. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.
The Precipitation chart shows no significant precipitation over the state today. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.
The next few days will continue to be cool to mild, still, and precipitation free. Today and tonight we will see a few clouds as moisture advects into our area, but no convection or precipitation is expected. It looks like we are in for another week of pleasant weather, minus tomorrow’s forecasted windy conditions.
Thank you for reading my forecast.
The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The forecasted upper air soundings are from TwisterData.com.
The surface observation and upper level charts are from Unisys Weather.
The satellite data is from College of DuPage – SATRAD