Yesterday was a pleasant day. It was mild, partly sunny, still and precipitation-free all day.
Currently, it is clear, still and cold in Socorro. As I traveled north this morning, I began to notice more cloud cover. Here is a photo from Los Lunas:
The National Weather Service (NWS) in Albuquerque forecasts (for Socorro) a partly sunny day, with a high temperature of 64 F. The winds will be from north at 5-10 mph, becoming south in the afternoon. This evening will be partly cloudy, and a low temperature of 32 F. The winds will be from the south at 5-10 mph, becoming west after midnight. The NWS has issued a Hazardous Weather Outlook for gusty winds tomorrow, but no hazards are expected today.
The visible satellite imagery is unavailable at this time.
The enhanced infrared satellite imagery shows a few thicker clouds scattered around the state, particularly over the central mountain chain and the northwestern corner of the state.
The water vapor imagery shows southwesterly flow over the state today, as moisture spirals around a low pressure system off the coast of the Pacific Northwest.
The 12Z sounding from Albuquerque shows a dry atmosphere again this morning, with high dewpoint depressions throughout. Overall, there was 0.20 inches of precipitable water present in the column. There was no Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) and no Convective Inhibition (CINH) present. There was a small thermal inversion near the surface, and the 0-3 km average lapse rate was 3.6 C/km.
The hodograph shows that there was 14 kts of low-level shear (due mostly to directional changes) and 53 kts of deep-layer shear (due mostly to speed changes) this morning.
The surface observations (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) show cool temperatures, low humidity (based on the surface dewpoint depressions), light winds, and clear skies over most of the state. There are no major frontal boundaries over the state so far this morning.
The surface pressure chart shows high pressure over the Four Corners area and a moderate pressure gradient through the eastern part of the state. The RAP shows that the pressure gradient will decrease slightly through the central part of the state over the next six hours.
Synoptically speaking, the 300 mb NAM chart (from Unisys) shows moderate zonal flow aloft.
The 500 mb NAM chart shows no significant vorticity advection over the state today. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.
The 700 mb NAM chart shows some rapidly-rising, and then rapidly-falling air in the northern part of the state. Typically, this is an indication of strong winds.
The 850 mb NAM chart shows no strong thermal advection, though there is a sharp thermal gradient in the eastern part of the state all day today.
The Precipitation chart shows no significant precipitation over the state today. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.
The next few days will continue to be cool to mild, still, and precipitation free. Today and tonight we will see a few clouds as moisture advects into our area, but no convection or precipitation is expected. It looks like we are in for several nice days, and perhaps a pleasant weekend.
Thank you for reading my forecast.
The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The forecasted upper air soundings are from TwisterData.com.
The surface observation and upper level charts are from Unisys Weather.
The satellite data is from College of DuPage – SATRAD