Yesterday was cold, breezy and partly sunny. No precipitation fell over Socorro and Magdalena, but my son said there was some falling graupel in Rio Rancho.
Currently, it is partly sunny, still and cold, with a few flat, mid-level cumulus clouds. It was 19 F, according to the backyard weather station, when I left my house in Rio Rancho. Here is a photo of sunrise near Bernalillo County (Albuquerque) train station:
The National Weather Service (NWS) in Albuquerque forecasts (for Socorro) a sunny day, with a high temperature of 41 F, with northwest winds of 5-10 mph. This evening will be mostly clear, and a low temperature of 19 F. The winds will be from the north at 5-10 mph.
The visible satellite imagery is unavailable at this time.
The enhanced infrared satellite imagery shows no thick clouds over the state this morning. All clouds have low, warm tops.
The water vapor imagery shows zonal moisture flow over the state this morning.
The 12Z sounding from Albuquerque shows a dry atmosphere again this morning, with moderate to high dewpoint depressions with the exception of a thin layer near 650 mb. Overall, there was 0.14 inches of precipitable water present in the column. There was no Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) and no Convective Inhibition (CINH) present. There was a small thermal inversion, and the 0-3 km average lapse rate was 3.6 C/km.
The hodograph shows that there was 23 kts of low-level shear (mostly directional changes) and 95 kts of deep-layer shear (mostly speed changes) this morning.
The surface observations (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) show cold temperatures, low humidity (based on the surface dewpoint depressions), light winds, and mostly clear skies over most of the state. There are no major frontal boundaries over the state so far this morning.
The surface pressure chart shows high pressure dominating the state this morning. There are no strong pressure gradients. The RAP shows that this trend will continue for at least the next six hours.
Synoptically speaking, the 300 mb NAM chart (from Unisys) shows strong zonal flow as the trough deforms overhead, and a jetstreak moves east. We are at the bottom of a broad trough.
The 500 mb NAM chart shows no strong vorticity advection over the state today. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.
The 700 mb NAM chart shows no rapidly-rising air over the state today. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.
The 850 mb NAM chart shows no significant thermal advection over the state today. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.
The Precipitation chart shows no significant precipitation over the state today. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.
The next few days will be cold, clear, and precipitation free. The lack of pressure gradients as high pressure settles over the area tells me that the winds will not be strong. Just cold, clear and precipitation-free.
Thank you for reading my forecast.
The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The forecasted upper air soundings are from TwisterData.com.
The surface observation and upper level charts are from Unisys Weather.
The satellite data is from College of DuPage – SATRAD