Yesterday was cool, breezy and partly sunny. The weather turned cool very quickly after the sun went down, and I went from being slightly chilly in a short-sleeved shirt to very cold with two coats.
Currently, it is mostly clear, still and cold. It was 18.9 F, according to the backyard weather station, when I left my house in Rio Rancho. Here is a photo of sunrise near the downtown Albuquerque train station.
The National Weather Service (NWS) in Albuquerque forecasts (for Socorro) a mostly sunny day, with a high temperature of 41 F, with northwest winds of 10-15 mph, increasing to 15-25 mph by the afternoon. This evening will be mostly clear, and a low temperature of 25 F. The winds will be from the northwest at 5-10 mph.
The visible satellite imagery is unavailable at this time.
The enhanced infrared satellite imagery shows that these clouds are not very thick, with low, warm tops.
The water vapor imagery shows the trough dipping through California and then ejecting into the Great Plains.
The 12Z sounding from Albuquerque shows a dry atmosphere this morning, with moderate to high dewpoint depressions all the way up. Overall, there was 0.15 inches of precipitable water present in the column. There was no Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) and no Convective Inhibition (CINH) present. There was no thermal inversion, and the 0-3 km average lapse rate was 7.2 C/km.
The hodograph shows that there was 12 kts of low-level shear (mostly directional changes) and 72 kts of deep-layer shear (mostly speed changes) this morning.
The surface observations (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) show cold temperatures, low humidity (based on the surface dewpoint depressions), light winds, and mostly clear skies over most of the state. There are no major frontal boundaries over the state so far this morning.
The surface pressure chart shows high pressure building over the New Mexico and Arizona border, with only a slight pressure gradient across the state so far this morning. The RAP shows the high pressure becoming more widespread, and the gradient increasing slightly over the next six hours.
Synoptically speaking, the 300 mb NAM chart (from Unisys) shows strong zonal flow as the trough deforms overhead, and a jetstreak moves east.
The 500 mb NAM chart shows some strong vorticity over the middle of the state today. It is moving east with the trough, so we will have some Negative Vorticity Advection (NVA) in its wake.
The 700 mb NAM chart shows no rapidly-rising air over the state today. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.
The 850 mb NAM chart shows no significant thermal advection over the state. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.
The Precipitation chart shows the north-central part of the state could continue to see snow through at least 00Z.
The next few days will be cold, clear, and precipitation free. Today is part of that transition, so there may be some breezy conditions in Socorro, but I expect them to settle out by this evening.
Thank you for reading my forecast.
The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The forecasted upper air soundings are from TwisterData.com.
The surface observation and upper level charts are from Unisys Weather.
The satellite data is from College of DuPage – SATRAD