Yesterday was cool, still and partly cloudy. When I walked around campus in the evening, there was some clouds, but no precipitation.
Currently, it is mostly sunny, breezy and cool. Here is a from Workman Hall on New Mexico Tech’s campus in Socorro.
The National Weather Service (NWS) in Albuquerque forecasts (for Socorro) a mostly sunny day, with a high temperature of 45 F, with west winds of 20-25 mph, gusting as high as 35 mph. This evening will be partly cloudy, and a low temperature of 25 F. The winds will be from the west at 10-15 mph. The NWS has issued a Hazardous Weather Outlook concerning the snow that will continue to fall in the northern and western parts of the state through this evening. The land east of the central mountain chain will see gusty winds as well. They have also issued several Winter Storm Warnings and Winter Weather Advisories for the higher elevations, as shown in the NWS Watches and Warnings map:
The visible satellite imagery shows clouds in the western half of the state so far this morning.
The enhanced infrared satellite imagery shows that these clouds are not very thick, with low, warm tops.
The water vapor imagery shows the trough dipping through California and then ejecting into the Great Plains.
The 12Z sounding from Albuquerque shows a relatively damp atmosphere below 500 mb this morning. Overall, there was 0.33 inches of precipitable water present in the column. There was 10 J/kg of Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) and no Convective Inhibition (CINH) present. There was no thermal inversion, and the 0-3 km average lapse rate was 7.2 C/km.
The hodograph shows that there was 14 kts of low-level shear (mostly speed changes) and 130 kts of deep-layer shear (mostly speed changes) this morning.
The surface observations (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) show cool temperatures, low humidity (based on the surface dewpoint depressions), moderate winds, and partly cloudy skies over most of the state. There are no major frontal boundaries over the state so far this morning.
The surface pressure chart shows low pressure in the Panhandles Region and northeastern New Mexico, with a strong pressure gradient over the state so far this morning. The RAP shows that the low pressure system will drift east, and the gradient will remain strong over the next six hours.
The Critical Thickness chart shows that the critical thickness contours have moved into the western and northern parts of the state this morning.
Synoptically speaking, the 300 mb NAM chart (from Unisys) shows strong southwesterly flow, as a strong jetstreak moves through New Mexico.
The 500 mb NAM chart shows some strong vorticity over the middle of the state today. It is not really advecting away at 00Z.
The 700 mb NAM chart shows no rapidly-rising air over the state today. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.
The 850 mb NAM chart shows moderate Cold Air Advection (CAA) in the form of a eastward-moving cold front. This will drop temperatures by 00Z, particularly in the western part of the state.
The Precipitation chart shows only the northwester corner of the state receiving precipitation by 00Z.
I think it will remain breezy, dry and mostly clear today in Socorro. The northwestern part of the state may see some snow this evening, and the eastern part of the state will see high winds, but I think the Rio Grande Valley will dodge most of the unpleasant weather.
Thank you for reading my forecast.
The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The forecasted upper air soundings are from TwisterData.com.
The surface observation and upper level charts are from Unisys Weather.
The satellite data is from College of DuPage – SATRAD