1/18/17:  Daily Post

Yesterday was cool, partly sunny and still from Magdalena to Rio Rancho.

Currently, it is partly cloudy, but it is still before sunrise.  It is cold and still in Rio Rancho this morning.  As I start this post on the bus through Albuquerque, some light rain is falling.  Here is a photo just south of the rain at the south end of Albuquerque:

The National Weather Service (NWS) in Albuquerque forecasts (for Socorro) a mostly sunny day, with a high temperature of 53 F.  The winds will be from the southwest at 5-10 mph, becoming west by this afternoon.  This evening will be partly cloudy, with a low temperature of 30 F.  The winds will be from the west at 5-10 mph.   The NWS has issued a Hazardous Weather Outlook concerning patchy and freezing fog  strong to damaging winds and mountain snow later this week.

The visible satellite imagery is unavailable at this time.

The enhanced infrared satellite imagery shows no thick clouds over the state today.  This image has been excluded from today’s post.

The water vapor imagery shows a strong frontal boundary in Texas, but no major disturbances over New Mexico.

The 12Z sounding from Albuquerque shows damp sounding below 150 mb this morning.  Overall, there was 0.37 inches of precipitable water present in the column.  There was no Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) and no Convective Inhibition (CINH) present.  There was no thermal inversion near the surface, and the 0-3 km average lapse rate was 6.7 C/km.

The hodograph shows that there was 12 kts of low-level shear (a mix of speed and directional changes) and 11 kts of deep-layer shear (a mix of speed and directional changes) this morning.

The surface observations (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) show cool temperatures, high humidity (based on the surface dewpoint depressions), light winds, and cloudy skies over most of the state this morning.  There are no major frontal boundaries over the state so far this morning.

The surface pressure chart shows the stable air mass we are under again today.  The pressure is slightly high, and there are no strong gradients over the state this morning. The RAP shows that the pressure will remain slightly high, and no strong gradients are expected to develop over the next six hours.

Synoptically speaking, the 300 mb NAM chart (from Unisys) shows that the upper-level low will remain overhead through at least 0Z.  New Mexico will be in the bottom of the trough, and there will only be light flow aloft.

The 500 mb NAM chart shows some vorticity over the state, but it is not advecting very strongly in any direction.

The 700 mb NAM chart shows no rapidly-rising air over the state today.  This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

The 850 mb NAM chart shows no strong thermal advection over the state today.  This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

The Precipitation chart shows that there is some precipitation possible in a small area north of Albuquerque.

We are in store for some changes starting tomorrow.  For now, however, the weather will be cool, partly to mostly sunny, and precipitation free by this afternoon.

Thank you for reading my forecast.

The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The forecasted upper air soundings are from TwisterData.com.
The surface observation and upper level charts are from Unisys Weather.
The satellite data is from NASA – MSFC

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About highplainschasing

This blog is about my tales in storm chasing. My name is Seth Price and I am an instrumentation instructor at New Mexico Tech. My amateur radio call sign is N3MRA.
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