Storm Prediction Center Update: 1/16/17

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) Outlook does not show much severe weather action over the next week.

Day 1: Marginal Risk

Ongoing thunderstorms in the warm sector of the mid-latitude cyclone may cause some severe weather over the next few hours.  However, as nighttime continues and the earth cools, the severe threat will diminish.  Even so, some strong thunderstorms are still possible.

Associated with the Marginal Risk is a 2% Tornado Threat Ring:


Day 2: Marginal Risk

The trough will remain positively-tilted and continue to move northeast.  The trough (and upper-level low) will bring strong mid-level winds to the Marginal Risk area.  These strong winds will enhance shear over an area with rich moisture (dewpoints in the 60’s), just ahead of the cold front associated with the upper-level trough.  While the onshore breeze is not very strong, a few storms may develop, and given the enhanced shear, may develop a tornado or two over the Coastal Plains of Texas.


Day 3:  No Risk Areas At This Time

Instability will be the weakest link in severe storm development for Day 3.  The cold front will be on the move, and the post-frontal environment will not be conducive to storm development.  A few isolated, weak storms are possible.


Day 4-8 Predictability Too Low

The best agreement in model output is for a severe weather threat on Day 6, as there is the possibility of a strong upper-level jet over the Gulf Coast.  Before Day 6 and after Day 6, the models diverge in what severe weather is possible.  Day 4 shows some possibility of strong low-level jet over the southern High Plains, and Day 7 shows that strong moisture advection ahead of the system may lead to a severe threat.  By Day 8, the system is expected to move off shore.  Either way, there is diverging solutions, lowering the overall predictability of severe weather.

Thank you for reading this post.

All data and images are from the Storm Prediction Center Website.


About highplainschasing

This blog is about my tales in storm chasing. My name is Seth Price and I am an instrumentation instructor at New Mexico Tech. My amateur radio call sign is N3MRA.
This entry was posted in Models, Practicing Concepts, Predictions, SPC 1-7 day and tagged , . Bookmark the permalink.

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